Ship outfitting is a key process in shipbuilding.Efficient and high-quality ship outfitting is a top priority for modern shipyards.These activities are conducted at different stations of shipyards.The outfitting plan ...Ship outfitting is a key process in shipbuilding.Efficient and high-quality ship outfitting is a top priority for modern shipyards.These activities are conducted at different stations of shipyards.The outfitting plan is one of the crucial issues in shipbuilding.In this paper,production scheduling and material ordering with endogenous uncertainty of the outfitting process are investigated.The uncertain factors in outfitting equipment production are usually decision-related,which leads to difficulties in addressing uncertainties in the outfitting production workshops before production is conducted according to plan.This uncertainty is regarded as endogenous uncertainty and can be treated as non-anticipativity constraints in the model.To address this problem,a stochastic two-stage programming model with endogenous uncertainty is established to optimize the outfitting job scheduling and raw material ordering process.A practical case of the shipyard of China Merchants Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd.is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.Satisfactory results are achieved at the lowest expected total cost as the complete kit rate of outfitting equipment is improved and emergency replenishment is reduced.展开更多
The accuracy of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)mainly depends on the precision of the landslide spatial position.However,the spatial position error of landslide survey is inevitable,resulting in considerable ...The accuracy of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)mainly depends on the precision of the landslide spatial position.However,the spatial position error of landslide survey is inevitable,resulting in considerable uncertainties in LSP modeling.To overcome this drawback,this study explores the influence of positional errors of landslide spatial position on LSP uncertainties,and then innovatively proposes a semi-supervised machine learning model to reduce the landslide spatial position error.This paper collected 16 environmental factors and 337 landslides with accurate spatial positions taking Shangyou County of China as an example.The 30e110 m error-based multilayer perceptron(MLP)and random forest(RF)models for LSP are established by randomly offsetting the original landslide by 30,50,70,90 and 110 m.The LSP uncertainties are analyzed by the LSP accuracy and distribution characteristics.Finally,a semi-supervised model is proposed to relieve the LSP uncertainties.Results show that:(1)The LSP accuracies of error-based RF/MLP models decrease with the increase of landslide position errors,and are lower than those of original data-based models;(2)70 m error-based models can still reflect the overall distribution characteristics of landslide susceptibility indices,thus original landslides with certain position errors are acceptable for LSP;(3)Semi-supervised machine learning model can efficiently reduce the landslide position errors and thus improve the LSP accuracies.展开更多
Current research on the dynamics and vibrations of geared rotor systems primarily focuses on deterministic models.However,uncertainties inevitably exist in the gear system,which cause uncertainties in system parameter...Current research on the dynamics and vibrations of geared rotor systems primarily focuses on deterministic models.However,uncertainties inevitably exist in the gear system,which cause uncertainties in system parameters and subsequently influence the accurate evaluation of system dynamic behavior.In this study,a dynamic model of a geared rotor system with mixed parameters and model uncertainties is proposed.Initially,the dynamic model of the geared rotor-bearing system with deterministic parameters is established using a finite element method.Subsequently,a nonparametric method is introduced to model the hybrid uncertainties in the dynamic model.Deviation coefficients and dispersion parameters are used to reflect the levels of parameter and model uncertainty.For example,the study evaluates the effects of uncertain bearing and mesh stiffness on the vibration responses of a geared rotor system.The results demonstrate that the influence of uncertainty varies among different model types.Model uncertainties have a more significant than parametric uncertainties,whereas hybrid uncertainties increase the nonlinearities and complexities of the system’s dynamic responses.These findings provide valuable insights into understanding the dynamic behavior of geared system with hybrid uncertainties.展开更多
Geomechanical parameters of intact metamorphic rocks determined from laboratory testing remain highly uncertain because of the great intrinsic variability associated with the degrees of metamorphism.The aim of this pa...Geomechanical parameters of intact metamorphic rocks determined from laboratory testing remain highly uncertain because of the great intrinsic variability associated with the degrees of metamorphism.The aim of this paper is to develop a proper methodology to analyze the uncertainties of geomechanical characteristics by focusing on three domains,i.e.data treatment process,schistosity angle,and mineralogy.First,the variabilities of the geomechanical laboratory data of Westwood Mine(Quebec,Canada)were examined statistically by applying different data treatment techniques,through which the most suitable outlier methods were selected for each parameter using multiple decision-making criteria and engineering judgment.Results indicated that some methods exhibited better performance in identifying the possible outliers,although several others were unsuccessful because of their limitation in large sample size.The well-known boxplot method might not be the best outlier method for most geomechanical parameters because its calculated confidence range was not acceptable according to engineering judgment.However,several approaches,including adjusted boxplot,2MADe,and 2SD,worked very well in the detection of true outliers.Also,the statistical tests indicate that the best-fitting probability distribution function for geomechanical intact parameters might not be the normal distribution,unlike what is assumed in most geomechanical studies.Moreover,the negative effects of schistosity angle on the uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)variabilities were reduced by excluding the samples within a specific angle range where the UCS data present the highest variation.Finally,a petrographic analysis was conducted to assess the associated uncertainties such that a logical link was found between the dispersion and the variabilities of hard and soft minerals.展开更多
Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological foreca...Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.展开更多
The ability to estimate earthquake source locations,along with the appraisal of relevant uncertainties,is paramount in monitoring both natural and human-induced micro-seismicity.For this purpose,a monitoring network m...The ability to estimate earthquake source locations,along with the appraisal of relevant uncertainties,is paramount in monitoring both natural and human-induced micro-seismicity.For this purpose,a monitoring network must be designed to minimize the location errors introduced by geometrically unbalanced networks.In this study,we first review different sources of errors relevant to the localization of seismic events,how they propagate through localization algorithms,and their impact on outcomes.We then propose a quantitative method,based on a Monte Carlo approach,to estimate the uncertainty in earthquake locations that is suited to the design,optimization,and assessment of the performance of a local seismic monitoring network.To illustrate the performance of the proposed approach,we analyzed the distribution of the localization uncertainties and their related dispersion for a highly dense grid of theoretical hypocenters in both the horizontal and vertical directions using an actual monitoring network layout.The results expand,quantitatively,the qualitative indications derived from purely geometrical parameters(azimuthal gap(AG))and classical detectability maps.The proposed method enables the systematic design,optimization,and evaluation of local seismic monitoring networks,enhancing monitoring accuracy in areas proximal to hydrocarbon production,geothermal fields,underground natural gas storage,and other subsurface activities.This approach aids in the accurate estimation of earthquake source locations and their associated uncertainties,which are crucial for assessing and mitigating seismic risks,thereby enabling the implementation of proactive measures to minimize potential hazards.From an operational perspective,reliably estimating location accuracy is crucial for evaluating the position of seismogenic sources and assessing possible links between well activities and the onset of seismicity.展开更多
This study aims to investigate the effects of different mapping unit scales and study area scales on the uncertainty rules of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP).To illustrate various study area scales,Ganzhou Ci...This study aims to investigate the effects of different mapping unit scales and study area scales on the uncertainty rules of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP).To illustrate various study area scales,Ganzhou City in China,its eastern region(Ganzhou East),and Ruijin County in Ganzhou East were chosen.Different mapping unit scales are represented by grid units with spatial resolution of 30 and 60 m,as well as slope units that were extracted by multi-scale segmentation method.The 3855 landslide locations and 21 typical environmental factors in Ganzhou City are first determined to create spatial datasets with input-outputs.Then,landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs)of Ganzhou City,Ganzhou East and Ruijin County are pro-duced using a support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),respectively.The LSMs of the above three regions are then extracted by mask from the LSM of Ganzhou City,along with the LSMs of Ruijin County from Ganzhou East.Additionally,LSMs of Ruijin at various mapping unit scales are generated in accordance.Accuracy and landslide suscepti-bility indexes(LSIs)distribution are used to express LSP uncertainties.The LSP uncertainties under grid units significantly decrease as study area scales decrease from Ganzhou City,Ganzhou East to Ruijin County,whereas those under slope units are less affected by study area scales.Of course,attentions should also be paid to the broader representativeness of large study areas.The LSP accuracy of slope units increases by about 6%–10%compared with those under grid units with 30 m and 60 m resolution in the same study area's scale.The significance of environmental factors exhibits an averaging trend as study area scale increases from small to large.The importance of environmental factors varies greatly with the 60 m grid unit,but it tends to be consistent to some extent in the 30 m grid unit and the slope unit.展开更多
Cable-driven parallel robots(CDPRs)use cables instead of the rigid limbs of traditional parallel robots,thus processing a large potential workspace,easy to assemble and disassemble characteristics,and with application...Cable-driven parallel robots(CDPRs)use cables instead of the rigid limbs of traditional parallel robots,thus processing a large potential workspace,easy to assemble and disassemble characteristics,and with applications in numerous fields.However,owing to the influence of cable flexibility and nonlinear friction,model uncertainties are di cult to eliminate from the control design.Hence,in this study,the model uncertainties of CDPRs are first analyzed based on a brief introduction to related research.Control strategies for CDPRs with model uncertainties are then reviewed.The advantages and disadvantages of several control strategies for CDPRS are discussed through traditional control strategies with kinematic and dynamic uncertainties.Compared with these traditional control strategies,deep reinforcement learning and model predictive control have received widespread attention in recent years owing to their model independence and recursive feasibility with constraint limits.A comprehensive review and brief analysis of current advances in these two control strategies for CDPRs with model uncertainties are presented,concluding with discussions regarding development directions.展开更多
In this paper,we develop new high-order numerical methods for hyperbolic systems of nonlinear partial differential equations(PDEs)with uncertainties.The new approach is realized in the semi-discrete finite-volume fram...In this paper,we develop new high-order numerical methods for hyperbolic systems of nonlinear partial differential equations(PDEs)with uncertainties.The new approach is realized in the semi-discrete finite-volume framework and is based on fifth-order weighted essentially non-oscillatory(WENO)interpolations in(multidimensional)random space combined with second-order piecewise linear reconstruction in physical space.Compared with spectral approximations in the random space,the presented methods are essentially non-oscillatory as they do not suffer from the Gibbs phenomenon while still achieving high-order accuracy.The new methods are tested on a number of numerical examples for both the Euler equations of gas dynamics and the Saint-Venant system of shallow-water equations.In the latter case,the methods are also proven to be well-balanced and positivity-preserving.展开更多
To take into account the influence of uncetainties on the dynamic response of the vibro-acousitc structure, a hybrid modeling technique combining the finite element method（FE）and the statistic energy analysis（SEA）...To take into account the influence of uncetainties on the dynamic response of the vibro-acousitc structure, a hybrid modeling technique combining the finite element method（FE）and the statistic energy analysis（SEA） is proposed to analyze vibro-acoustics responses with uncertainties at middle frequencies. The mid-frequency dynamic response of the framework-plate structure with uncertainties is studied based on the hybrid FE-SEA method and the Monte Carlo（MC）simulation is performed so as to provide a benchmark comparison with the hybrid method. The energy response of the framework-plate structure matches well with the MC simulation results, which validates the effectiveness of the hybrid FE-SEA method considering both the complexity of the vibro-acoustic structure and the uncertainties in mid-frequency vibro-acousitc analysis. Based on the hybrid method, a vibroacoustic model of a construction machinery cab with random properties is established, and the excitations of the model are measured by experiments. The responses of the sound pressure level of the cab and the vibration power spectrum density of the front windscreen are calculated and compared with those of the experiment. At middle frequencies, the results have a good consistency with the tests and the prediction error is less than 3. 5dB.展开更多
Aim The solvability condition for robust stabilization problem associated with a plant family P(s,δ) having parameter uncertainty δ was considered. Methods Using Youla parameterization of the stabilizers this pro...Aim The solvability condition for robust stabilization problem associated with a plant family P(s,δ) having parameter uncertainty δ was considered. Methods Using Youla parameterization of the stabilizers this problem was transformed into a strong stabilization problem associated with a related plant family G (s, δ). Results A necessary solvability condition was established in terms of the parity interlacing property of each element in G(s,δ). Another apparently necessary solvability condition is that every element in P(s,δ) must be stabilizable. Conclusion The two conditions will be compared with each other and it will be shown that every element in G(s,δ) possesses parity interlacing property if P(s,δ) is stabilizable.展开更多
Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）. By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface ai...Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）. By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface air temperature（SAT） is predicted to increase by 1.3℃± 0.7℃, 2.6℃± 0.8℃ and 5.2℃± 1.2℃ under the Representative Concentration Pathway（RCP） scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to 1986–2005, respectively. The future change in SAT averaged over China increases the most in autumn/winter and the least in spring, while the uncertainty shows little seasonal variation.Spatially, the annual and seasonal mean SAT both show a homogeneous warming pattern across China, with a warming rate increasing from southeastern China to the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, invariant with time and emissions scenario.The associated uncertainty in SAT decreases from northern to southern China. Meanwhile, by 2081–2100, the annual mean precipitation increases by 5% ± 5%, 8% ± 6% and 12% ± 8% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The national average precipitation anomaly percentage, largest in spring and smallest in winter, and its uncertainty, largest in winter and smallest in autumn, show visible seasonal variations. Although at a low confidence level, a homogeneous wetting pattern is projected across China on the annual mean scale, with a larger increasing percentage in northern China and a weak drying in southern China in the early 21 st century. The associated uncertainty is also generally larger in northern China and smaller in southwestern China. In addition, both SAT and precipitation usually show larger seasonal variability on the sub-regional scale compared with the national average.展开更多
Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which ca...Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which can be represented by ranges or probability distributions rather than single value. Based on a case study with information from an actual site contaminated with benzene, this study describes the application of MMSOILS model to predict health risk and distributions of those predictions generated using Monte Carlo techniques. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints. This directly translates into a reduction in data collection and modeling effort. It was demonstrated that how correlation coefficient could be used to evaluate contributions to overall uncertainty from each parameter. The integrated uncertainty analysis shows that although drinking groundwater risk is similar with inhalation air risk, uncertainties of total risk come dominantly from drinking groundwater route. Most percent of the variance of total risk comes from four random variables.展开更多
Gas content of coal is mostly determined using a direct method, particularly in coal mining where mine safety is of paramount importance. Direct method consists of measuring directly the volume of gas desorbed from co...Gas content of coal is mostly determined using a direct method, particularly in coal mining where mine safety is of paramount importance. Direct method consists of measuring directly the volume of gas desorbed from coal in several steps, from solid then crushed coal. In mixed gas conditions the composition of the desorbed gas is also measured to account for contribution of various coal seam gas in the mix. The determination of gas content using the direct method is associated with errors of measurement of volume of gas but also the errors associated with measurement of composition of the desorbed gas. These errors lead to uncertainties in reporting the gas content and composition of in-situ seam gas. This paper discusses the current direct method practised in Australia and potential errors and uncertainty associated with this method. Generic methods of estimate of uncertainties are also developed and are to be included in reporting gas content of coal. A method of direct measurement of remaining gas in coal following the completion of standard gas content testing is also presented. The new method would allow the determination of volume of almost all gas in coal and therefore the value of total gas content. This method is being considered to be integrated into a new standard for gas content testing.展开更多
Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts o...Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts or merely in a specific parameter, this paper proposes a system dynamic model(SDM) for drilling and blasting operations as an interactive system. In addition, some technical and economic uncertainties such as rock density, uniaxial compressive strength, bit life and operating costs are considered in this system to evaluate the different optimization results. For this purpose, Vensim simulation software is utilized as a powerful dynamic tool for both modelling and optimizing under deterministic and uncertain conditions. It is concluded that an integrated optimization as opposed to the deterministic approach can be efficiently achieved. This however is dependent on the parameters that are considered as uncertainties.展开更多
In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones （TCs）, TC Longwang （2005） and TC Sinlaku （2008）, to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in un...In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones （TCs）, TC Longwang （2005） and TC Sinlaku （2008）, to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically, three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）, first singular vector （FSV）, and composite singular vector （CSV） methods. Additionally, random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts. Overall, results from the experiments indicate the following： （1） The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas. From the perspective of statisticul analysis, and by comparison, the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest. （2） The initial errors with CNOP, CSV, or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors. （3） The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.展开更多
The permanent magnet synchronous motors （PMSMs） may have chaotic behaviours for the uncertain values of parameters or under certain working conditions, which threatens the secure and stable operation of motor-driven...The permanent magnet synchronous motors （PMSMs） may have chaotic behaviours for the uncertain values of parameters or under certain working conditions, which threatens the secure and stable operation of motor-driven. It is important to study methods of controlling or suppressing chaos in PMSMs. In this paper, robust stabilities of PMSM with parameter uncertainties are investigated. After the uncertain matrices which represent the variable system parameters are formulated through matrix analysis, a novel asymptotical stability criterion is established. Some illustrated examples are also given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.展开更多
The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty...The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty, while various scenarios for the reservoir properties and cost are employed to consider technical uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the feasible range of net present values and internal rates of return. The influence of stochastic parameters is examined through correlation coefficients. The stochastic approach yields more reliable evaluation and effectively investigates the characteristics of development. The integration of uncertainties and contractual terms results in an irregular tendency in the future cash flow and reveals that a larger reserve does not guarantee a greater profit. The reserve and the well rate affect the economic values whereas the parameters for price prediction don＇t. The research confirms the necessity of qualifying uncertainties for realistic decision-making at the initial stage of development.展开更多
The problem of observer-based robust predictive control is studied for the singular systems with norm-bounded uncertainties and time-delay, and the design method of robust predictive observer-based controller is propo...The problem of observer-based robust predictive control is studied for the singular systems with norm-bounded uncertainties and time-delay, and the design method of robust predictive observer-based controller is proposed. By constructing the Lyapunov function with the error terms, the infinite time domain ＂min-max＂ optimization problems are converted into convex optimization problems solving by the linear matrix inequality （LMI）, and the sufficient conditions for the existence of this control are derived. It is proved that the robust stability of the closed-loop singular systems can be guaranteed by the initial feasible solutions of the optimization problems, and the regular and the impulse-free of the singular systems are also guaranteed. A simulation example illustrates the efficiency of this method.展开更多
The control law design for a near-space hypersonic vehicle（NHV） is highly challenging due to its inherent nonlinearity,plant uncertainties and sensitivity to disturbances.This paper presents a novel functional link ...The control law design for a near-space hypersonic vehicle（NHV） is highly challenging due to its inherent nonlinearity,plant uncertainties and sensitivity to disturbances.This paper presents a novel functional link network（FLN） control method for an NHV with dynamical thrust and parameter uncertainties.The approach devises a new partially-feedback-functional-link-network（PFFLN） adaptive law and combines it with the nonlinear generalized predictive control（NGPC） algorithm.The PFFLN is employed for approximating uncertainties in flight.Its weights are online tuned based on Lyapunov stability theorem for the first time.The learning process does not need any offline training phase.Additionally,a robust controller with an adaptive gain is designed to offset the approximation error.Finally,simulation results show a satisfactory performance for the NHV attitude tracking,and also illustrate the controller＇s robustness.展开更多
基金supported in part by the High-tech ship scientific research project of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China,and the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71671113)the Science and Technology Department of Shaanxi Province(No.2020GY-219)the Ministry of Education Collaborative Project of Production,Learning and Research(No.201901024016).
文摘Ship outfitting is a key process in shipbuilding.Efficient and high-quality ship outfitting is a top priority for modern shipyards.These activities are conducted at different stations of shipyards.The outfitting plan is one of the crucial issues in shipbuilding.In this paper,production scheduling and material ordering with endogenous uncertainty of the outfitting process are investigated.The uncertain factors in outfitting equipment production are usually decision-related,which leads to difficulties in addressing uncertainties in the outfitting production workshops before production is conducted according to plan.This uncertainty is regarded as endogenous uncertainty and can be treated as non-anticipativity constraints in the model.To address this problem,a stochastic two-stage programming model with endogenous uncertainty is established to optimize the outfitting job scheduling and raw material ordering process.A practical case of the shipyard of China Merchants Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd.is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.Satisfactory results are achieved at the lowest expected total cost as the complete kit rate of outfitting equipment is improved and emergency replenishment is reduced.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42377164 and 52079062)the Interdisciplinary Innovation Fund of Natural Science,Nanchang University(Grant No.9167-28220007-YB2107).
文摘The accuracy of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)mainly depends on the precision of the landslide spatial position.However,the spatial position error of landslide survey is inevitable,resulting in considerable uncertainties in LSP modeling.To overcome this drawback,this study explores the influence of positional errors of landslide spatial position on LSP uncertainties,and then innovatively proposes a semi-supervised machine learning model to reduce the landslide spatial position error.This paper collected 16 environmental factors and 337 landslides with accurate spatial positions taking Shangyou County of China as an example.The 30e110 m error-based multilayer perceptron(MLP)and random forest(RF)models for LSP are established by randomly offsetting the original landslide by 30,50,70,90 and 110 m.The LSP uncertainties are analyzed by the LSP accuracy and distribution characteristics.Finally,a semi-supervised model is proposed to relieve the LSP uncertainties.Results show that:(1)The LSP accuracies of error-based RF/MLP models decrease with the increase of landslide position errors,and are lower than those of original data-based models;(2)70 m error-based models can still reflect the overall distribution characteristics of landslide susceptibility indices,thus original landslides with certain position errors are acceptable for LSP;(3)Semi-supervised machine learning model can efficiently reduce the landslide position errors and thus improve the LSP accuracies.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12072106,52005156)National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFB2008101)Foundation of Henan Key Laboratory of Superhard Abrasives and Grinding Equipment,Henan University of Technology of China(Grant No.JDKFJJ2022002).
文摘Current research on the dynamics and vibrations of geared rotor systems primarily focuses on deterministic models.However,uncertainties inevitably exist in the gear system,which cause uncertainties in system parameters and subsequently influence the accurate evaluation of system dynamic behavior.In this study,a dynamic model of a geared rotor system with mixed parameters and model uncertainties is proposed.Initially,the dynamic model of the geared rotor-bearing system with deterministic parameters is established using a finite element method.Subsequently,a nonparametric method is introduced to model the hybrid uncertainties in the dynamic model.Deviation coefficients and dispersion parameters are used to reflect the levels of parameter and model uncertainty.For example,the study evaluates the effects of uncertain bearing and mesh stiffness on the vibration responses of a geared rotor system.The results demonstrate that the influence of uncertainty varies among different model types.Model uncertainties have a more significant than parametric uncertainties,whereas hybrid uncertainties increase the nonlinearities and complexities of the system’s dynamic responses.These findings provide valuable insights into understanding the dynamic behavior of geared system with hybrid uncertainties.
基金The authors would like to thank the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC),IAMGOLD Corporation,and Westwood mine for supporting and funding this research(Grant No.RDCPJ 520428e17)also NSERC discovery funding(Grant No.RGPIN-2019-06693).
文摘Geomechanical parameters of intact metamorphic rocks determined from laboratory testing remain highly uncertain because of the great intrinsic variability associated with the degrees of metamorphism.The aim of this paper is to develop a proper methodology to analyze the uncertainties of geomechanical characteristics by focusing on three domains,i.e.data treatment process,schistosity angle,and mineralogy.First,the variabilities of the geomechanical laboratory data of Westwood Mine(Quebec,Canada)were examined statistically by applying different data treatment techniques,through which the most suitable outlier methods were selected for each parameter using multiple decision-making criteria and engineering judgment.Results indicated that some methods exhibited better performance in identifying the possible outliers,although several others were unsuccessful because of their limitation in large sample size.The well-known boxplot method might not be the best outlier method for most geomechanical parameters because its calculated confidence range was not acceptable according to engineering judgment.However,several approaches,including adjusted boxplot,2MADe,and 2SD,worked very well in the detection of true outliers.Also,the statistical tests indicate that the best-fitting probability distribution function for geomechanical intact parameters might not be the normal distribution,unlike what is assumed in most geomechanical studies.Moreover,the negative effects of schistosity angle on the uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)variabilities were reduced by excluding the samples within a specific angle range where the UCS data present the highest variation.Finally,a petrographic analysis was conducted to assess the associated uncertainties such that a logical link was found between the dispersion and the variabilities of hard and soft minerals.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3700701)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775146,42061134009)+1 种基金USTC Research Funds of the Double First-Class Initiative(YD2080002007)Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB41000000).
文摘Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.
文摘The ability to estimate earthquake source locations,along with the appraisal of relevant uncertainties,is paramount in monitoring both natural and human-induced micro-seismicity.For this purpose,a monitoring network must be designed to minimize the location errors introduced by geometrically unbalanced networks.In this study,we first review different sources of errors relevant to the localization of seismic events,how they propagate through localization algorithms,and their impact on outcomes.We then propose a quantitative method,based on a Monte Carlo approach,to estimate the uncertainty in earthquake locations that is suited to the design,optimization,and assessment of the performance of a local seismic monitoring network.To illustrate the performance of the proposed approach,we analyzed the distribution of the localization uncertainties and their related dispersion for a highly dense grid of theoretical hypocenters in both the horizontal and vertical directions using an actual monitoring network layout.The results expand,quantitatively,the qualitative indications derived from purely geometrical parameters(azimuthal gap(AG))and classical detectability maps.The proposed method enables the systematic design,optimization,and evaluation of local seismic monitoring networks,enhancing monitoring accuracy in areas proximal to hydrocarbon production,geothermal fields,underground natural gas storage,and other subsurface activities.This approach aids in the accurate estimation of earthquake source locations and their associated uncertainties,which are crucial for assessing and mitigating seismic risks,thereby enabling the implementation of proactive measures to minimize potential hazards.From an operational perspective,reliably estimating location accuracy is crucial for evaluating the position of seismogenic sources and assessing possible links between well activities and the onset of seismicity.
基金the Natural Science Foundation of China(41807285)Interdisciplinary Innovation Fund of Natural Science,NanChang University(9167-28220007-YB2107).
文摘This study aims to investigate the effects of different mapping unit scales and study area scales on the uncertainty rules of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP).To illustrate various study area scales,Ganzhou City in China,its eastern region(Ganzhou East),and Ruijin County in Ganzhou East were chosen.Different mapping unit scales are represented by grid units with spatial resolution of 30 and 60 m,as well as slope units that were extracted by multi-scale segmentation method.The 3855 landslide locations and 21 typical environmental factors in Ganzhou City are first determined to create spatial datasets with input-outputs.Then,landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs)of Ganzhou City,Ganzhou East and Ruijin County are pro-duced using a support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),respectively.The LSMs of the above three regions are then extracted by mask from the LSM of Ganzhou City,along with the LSMs of Ruijin County from Ganzhou East.Additionally,LSMs of Ruijin at various mapping unit scales are generated in accordance.Accuracy and landslide suscepti-bility indexes(LSIs)distribution are used to express LSP uncertainties.The LSP uncertainties under grid units significantly decrease as study area scales decrease from Ganzhou City,Ganzhou East to Ruijin County,whereas those under slope units are less affected by study area scales.Of course,attentions should also be paid to the broader representativeness of large study areas.The LSP accuracy of slope units increases by about 6%–10%compared with those under grid units with 30 m and 60 m resolution in the same study area's scale.The significance of environmental factors exhibits an averaging trend as study area scale increases from small to large.The importance of environmental factors varies greatly with the 60 m grid unit,but it tends to be consistent to some extent in the 30 m grid unit and the slope unit.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51525504)。
文摘Cable-driven parallel robots(CDPRs)use cables instead of the rigid limbs of traditional parallel robots,thus processing a large potential workspace,easy to assemble and disassemble characteristics,and with applications in numerous fields.However,owing to the influence of cable flexibility and nonlinear friction,model uncertainties are di cult to eliminate from the control design.Hence,in this study,the model uncertainties of CDPRs are first analyzed based on a brief introduction to related research.Control strategies for CDPRs with model uncertainties are then reviewed.The advantages and disadvantages of several control strategies for CDPRS are discussed through traditional control strategies with kinematic and dynamic uncertainties.Compared with these traditional control strategies,deep reinforcement learning and model predictive control have received widespread attention in recent years owing to their model independence and recursive feasibility with constraint limits.A comprehensive review and brief analysis of current advances in these two control strategies for CDPRs with model uncertainties are presented,concluding with discussions regarding development directions.
基金supported in part by the NSF grant DMS-2208438.The work of M.Herty was supported in part by the DFG(German Research Foundation)through 20021702/GRK2326,333849990/IRTG-2379,HE5386/18-1,19-2,22-1,23-1under Germany’s Excellence Strategy EXC-2023 Internet of Production 390621612+1 种基金The work of A.Kurganov was supported in part by the NSFC grant 12171226the fund of the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computational Science and Material Design,China(No.2019B030301001).
文摘In this paper,we develop new high-order numerical methods for hyperbolic systems of nonlinear partial differential equations(PDEs)with uncertainties.The new approach is realized in the semi-discrete finite-volume framework and is based on fifth-order weighted essentially non-oscillatory(WENO)interpolations in(multidimensional)random space combined with second-order piecewise linear reconstruction in physical space.Compared with spectral approximations in the random space,the presented methods are essentially non-oscillatory as they do not suffer from the Gibbs phenomenon while still achieving high-order accuracy.The new methods are tested on a number of numerical examples for both the Euler equations of gas dynamics and the Saint-Venant system of shallow-water equations.In the latter case,the methods are also proven to be well-balanced and positivity-preserving.
基金Science and Technology Support Planning of Jiangsu Province(No.BE2014133)the Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Underw ater Acoustic Signal Processing(No.UASP1301)the Prospective Joint Research Project of Jiangsu province(No.BY2014127-01)
文摘To take into account the influence of uncetainties on the dynamic response of the vibro-acousitc structure, a hybrid modeling technique combining the finite element method（FE）and the statistic energy analysis（SEA） is proposed to analyze vibro-acoustics responses with uncertainties at middle frequencies. The mid-frequency dynamic response of the framework-plate structure with uncertainties is studied based on the hybrid FE-SEA method and the Monte Carlo（MC）simulation is performed so as to provide a benchmark comparison with the hybrid method. The energy response of the framework-plate structure matches well with the MC simulation results, which validates the effectiveness of the hybrid FE-SEA method considering both the complexity of the vibro-acoustic structure and the uncertainties in mid-frequency vibro-acousitc analysis. Based on the hybrid method, a vibroacoustic model of a construction machinery cab with random properties is established, and the excitations of the model are measured by experiments. The responses of the sound pressure level of the cab and the vibration power spectrum density of the front windscreen are calculated and compared with those of the experiment. At middle frequencies, the results have a good consistency with the tests and the prediction error is less than 3. 5dB.
文摘Aim The solvability condition for robust stabilization problem associated with a plant family P(s,δ) having parameter uncertainty δ was considered. Methods Using Youla parameterization of the stabilizers this problem was transformed into a strong stabilization problem associated with a related plant family G (s, δ). Results A necessary solvability condition was established in terms of the parity interlacing property of each element in G(s,δ). Another apparently necessary solvability condition is that every element in P(s,δ) must be stabilizable. Conclusion The two conditions will be compared with each other and it will be shown that every element in G(s,δ) possesses parity interlacing property if P(s,δ) is stabilizable.
基金jointly supported by the 973 programs (Grant Nos. 2010CB950501 and 2012CB955501)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2012LYB43)
文摘Climate changes in future 21 st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）. By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface air temperature（SAT） is predicted to increase by 1.3℃± 0.7℃, 2.6℃± 0.8℃ and 5.2℃± 1.2℃ under the Representative Concentration Pathway（RCP） scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to 1986–2005, respectively. The future change in SAT averaged over China increases the most in autumn/winter and the least in spring, while the uncertainty shows little seasonal variation.Spatially, the annual and seasonal mean SAT both show a homogeneous warming pattern across China, with a warming rate increasing from southeastern China to the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, invariant with time and emissions scenario.The associated uncertainty in SAT decreases from northern to southern China. Meanwhile, by 2081–2100, the annual mean precipitation increases by 5% ± 5%, 8% ± 6% and 12% ± 8% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The national average precipitation anomaly percentage, largest in spring and smallest in winter, and its uncertainty, largest in winter and smallest in autumn, show visible seasonal variations. Although at a low confidence level, a homogeneous wetting pattern is projected across China on the annual mean scale, with a larger increasing percentage in northern China and a weak drying in southern China in the early 21 st century. The associated uncertainty is also generally larger in northern China and smaller in southwestern China. In addition, both SAT and precipitation usually show larger seasonal variability on the sub-regional scale compared with the national average.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40572141).
文摘Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which can be represented by ranges or probability distributions rather than single value. Based on a case study with information from an actual site contaminated with benzene, this study describes the application of MMSOILS model to predict health risk and distributions of those predictions generated using Monte Carlo techniques. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints. This directly translates into a reduction in data collection and modeling effort. It was demonstrated that how correlation coefficient could be used to evaluate contributions to overall uncertainty from each parameter. The integrated uncertainty analysis shows that although drinking groundwater risk is similar with inhalation air risk, uncertainties of total risk come dominantly from drinking groundwater route. Most percent of the variance of total risk comes from four random variables.
文摘Gas content of coal is mostly determined using a direct method, particularly in coal mining where mine safety is of paramount importance. Direct method consists of measuring directly the volume of gas desorbed from coal in several steps, from solid then crushed coal. In mixed gas conditions the composition of the desorbed gas is also measured to account for contribution of various coal seam gas in the mix. The determination of gas content using the direct method is associated with errors of measurement of volume of gas but also the errors associated with measurement of composition of the desorbed gas. These errors lead to uncertainties in reporting the gas content and composition of in-situ seam gas. This paper discusses the current direct method practised in Australia and potential errors and uncertainty associated with this method. Generic methods of estimate of uncertainties are also developed and are to be included in reporting gas content of coal. A method of direct measurement of remaining gas in coal following the completion of standard gas content testing is also presented. The new method would allow the determination of volume of almost all gas in coal and therefore the value of total gas content. This method is being considered to be integrated into a new standard for gas content testing.
文摘Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts or merely in a specific parameter, this paper proposes a system dynamic model(SDM) for drilling and blasting operations as an interactive system. In addition, some technical and economic uncertainties such as rock density, uniaxial compressive strength, bit life and operating costs are considered in this system to evaluate the different optimization results. For this purpose, Vensim simulation software is utilized as a powerful dynamic tool for both modelling and optimizing under deterministic and uncertain conditions. It is concluded that an integrated optimization as opposed to the deterministic approach can be efficiently achieved. This however is dependent on the parameters that are considered as uncertainties.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. 40830955)the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009)
文摘In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones （TCs）, TC Longwang （2005） and TC Sinlaku （2008）, to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts. Specifically, three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）, first singular vector （FSV）, and composite singular vector （CSV） methods. Additionally, random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered. Based on these four types of initial errors and areas, we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors, and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts. Overall, results from the experiments indicate the following： （1） The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas. From the perspective of statisticul analysis, and by comparison, the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest. （2） The initial errors with CNOP, CSV, or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors. （3） The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 60604007)
文摘The permanent magnet synchronous motors （PMSMs） may have chaotic behaviours for the uncertain values of parameters or under certain working conditions, which threatens the secure and stable operation of motor-driven. It is important to study methods of controlling or suppressing chaos in PMSMs. In this paper, robust stabilities of PMSM with parameter uncertainties are investigated. After the uncertain matrices which represent the variable system parameters are formulated through matrix analysis, a novel asymptotical stability criterion is established. Some illustrated examples are also given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.
文摘The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty, while various scenarios for the reservoir properties and cost are employed to consider technical uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the feasible range of net present values and internal rates of return. The influence of stochastic parameters is examined through correlation coefficients. The stochastic approach yields more reliable evaluation and effectively investigates the characteristics of development. The integration of uncertainties and contractual terms results in an irregular tendency in the future cash flow and reveals that a larger reserve does not guarantee a greater profit. The reserve and the well rate affect the economic values whereas the parameters for price prediction don＇t. The research confirms the necessity of qualifying uncertainties for realistic decision-making at the initial stage of development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60774016).
文摘The problem of observer-based robust predictive control is studied for the singular systems with norm-bounded uncertainties and time-delay, and the design method of robust predictive observer-based controller is proposed. By constructing the Lyapunov function with the error terms, the infinite time domain ＂min-max＂ optimization problems are converted into convex optimization problems solving by the linear matrix inequality （LMI）, and the sufficient conditions for the existence of this control are derived. It is proved that the robust stability of the closed-loop singular systems can be guaranteed by the initial feasible solutions of the optimization problems, and the regular and the impulse-free of the singular systems are also guaranteed. A simulation example illustrates the efficiency of this method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (9071602860974106)
文摘The control law design for a near-space hypersonic vehicle（NHV） is highly challenging due to its inherent nonlinearity,plant uncertainties and sensitivity to disturbances.This paper presents a novel functional link network（FLN） control method for an NHV with dynamical thrust and parameter uncertainties.The approach devises a new partially-feedback-functional-link-network（PFFLN） adaptive law and combines it with the nonlinear generalized predictive control（NGPC） algorithm.The PFFLN is employed for approximating uncertainties in flight.Its weights are online tuned based on Lyapunov stability theorem for the first time.The learning process does not need any offline training phase.Additionally,a robust controller with an adaptive gain is designed to offset the approximation error.Finally,simulation results show a satisfactory performance for the NHV attitude tracking,and also illustrate the controller＇s robustness.
