The pentad average minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over the northern South China Sea (SCS) are selected as indexes to analyze the intensity of the convection connected with the SCS monsoon onset. Statis...The pentad average minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over the northern South China Sea (SCS) are selected as indexes to analyze the intensity of the convection connected with the SCS monsoon onset. Statistic analysis demonstrates that the index can account for the intensity of the SCS monsoon about, at least, 75%. A significant negative correlation (confident level over 90%) between Shandong’s summer rainfall and the index is found only in the period of 24-26 pentads and limited to the area above the deeper water basin of the SCS (10°-20°N, 110°-117.5°E). Thus the minimum OLR over the deeper water basin during 24-26 pentads can be used as a valuable predictor for the long lead forecast of the precipitation. The 500 hPa geopotential height data in the Northern Hemisphere for the period from 1951 to 2000 are used in order to characterize the physical mechanisms involved. The composite anomalies of the 500 hPa level allow for the identification and detection of the teleconnection of the East Asia North America (EAP) pattern that is responsible to some extent for the interannual variability of the precipitation of Shandong Province. Besides, the interannual differences of the intraseasonal variations (ISV) of OLR and their northward transmission probably make a contribution to the position of the subtropical high which is vital for the summer rainfall in the province.展开更多
The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500 hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It ...The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500 hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA) .展开更多
基金sponsored by the program‘The comprehensive research on the Nansha islands and the adjacent sea’ratified by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2001DIA50041)
文摘The pentad average minimum outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data over the northern South China Sea (SCS) are selected as indexes to analyze the intensity of the convection connected with the SCS monsoon onset. Statistic analysis demonstrates that the index can account for the intensity of the SCS monsoon about, at least, 75%. A significant negative correlation (confident level over 90%) between Shandong’s summer rainfall and the index is found only in the period of 24-26 pentads and limited to the area above the deeper water basin of the SCS (10°-20°N, 110°-117.5°E). Thus the minimum OLR over the deeper water basin during 24-26 pentads can be used as a valuable predictor for the long lead forecast of the precipitation. The 500 hPa geopotential height data in the Northern Hemisphere for the period from 1951 to 2000 are used in order to characterize the physical mechanisms involved. The composite anomalies of the 500 hPa level allow for the identification and detection of the teleconnection of the East Asia North America (EAP) pattern that is responsible to some extent for the interannual variability of the precipitation of Shandong Province. Besides, the interannual differences of the intraseasonal variations (ISV) of OLR and their northward transmission probably make a contribution to the position of the subtropical high which is vital for the summer rainfall in the province.
文摘The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500 hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA) .
