Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land...Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model forthe simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climatescenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climateB2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, theHaihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production ascompared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in theflood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.展开更多
This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China （EMRC）. It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basi...This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China （EMRC）. It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program （2010CB428400）, where the major research focuses are detection and attribution, extreme floods and droughts, and adaptation of water resources management. Preliminary conclusions can be summarized into four points： 1） Water cycling and water resource changes in the EMRC are rather complicated as the region is impacted by natural changes relating to the strong monsoon influence and also by climate change impacts caused by CO2 emissions due to anthropogenic forcing; 2） the rate of natural variability contributing to the influence on precipitation accounts for about 70%, and the rate from anthropogenic forcing accounts for 30% on average in the EMRC. However, with future scenarios of increasing CO2 emissions, the contribution rate from anthropogenic forcing will increase and water resources management will experience greater issues related to the climate change impact; 3） Extreme floods and droughts in the EMRC will be an increasing trend, based on IPCC-AR5 scenarios; 4） Along with rising temperatures of 1 ~C in North China, the agricultural water consumption will increase to about 4% of total water consumption. Therefore, climate change is making a significant impact and will be a risk to the EMRC, which covers almost all of the eight major river basins, such as the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, and Pearl River, and to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （middle line）. To ensure water security, it is urgently necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and reduce the vulnerability of water resources and associated risks.展开更多
Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experime...Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experiments using regional climate model RegCM4. In the first experiment used to study the climatic responses to human carbon emissions, the model were configured over entire China because the impacts of carbon emissions can be detected across the whole country. Results from the first experiment revealed that near-surface air temperature may significantly increase from 2007 to 2059 at a rate exceeding 0.1 ~C per decade in most areas across the country; southwestern and southeastern China also showed increasing trends in summer precipitation, with rates exceeding 10 mm per decade over the same period. In summer, only northern China showed an increasing trend of evapotranspiration, with increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade; in winter, increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade were observed in most regions. These effects are believed to be caused by global warming from human carbon emissions. In the second experiment used to study the effects of human water use, the model were configured over a limited region-- Haihe River Basin in the northern China, because compared with the human carbon emissions, the effects of human water use are much more local and regional, and the Haihe River Basin is the most typical region in China that suffers from both intensive human groundwater exploitation and surface water diversion. We incorporated a scheme of human water regulation into RegCM4 and conducted the second experiment. Model outputs showed that the groundwater table severely declined by -10 m in 1971-2000 through human groundwater over- exploitation in the basin; in fact, current conditions are so extreme that even reducing the pumping rate by half cannot eliminate the ground- water depletion cones observed in the area. Other hydrological and climatic elements, such as soil moisture, runoff generation, air humidity, precipitation, wind field, and soil and air temperature, were also significantly affected by anthropogenic water withdrawal and consumption, although these effects could be mitigated by reducing the amount of water drawn for extraction and application.展开更多
The regional climate model RegCM4 was used to investigate the regional climate effects of land cover change over China. Two 24-year simulations （1978-2001）, one with the land cover derived from the MODIS data and th...The regional climate model RegCM4 was used to investigate the regional climate effects of land cover change over China. Two 24-year simulations （1978-2001）, one with the land cover derived from the MODIS data and the other with the CLCV （Chinese land cover derived from vegetation map） data, were conducted for a region encompassing China. The differences between the MODIS and CLCV data reflect characteristics of desertification and degradation of vegetation in China. Results indicate that the land cover change has important impacts on local climate through mechanisms related to changes in surface energy, water budgets and macro-scale circulation. In summer, the land cover change leads to a decrease in surface air temperature over southern China, a reduction in precipitation and an increase in surface air temperature in the transitional climate zone and the northern Tibetan Plateau, and an increase in inter-annual variability of surface air temperature in the marginal monsoon zone and northwestern China. Strengthened southwesterly winds increase precipitation to some extent in central and eastern Inner Mongolia by enhancing water vapor transport. In winter, enhanced northerly winds, bringing more dry and cold air, lead to a reduction in precipitation and temperature over areas south of the Yellow River.展开更多
To improve current understanding of the water cycle,energy partitioning and CO2 exchange over hilly zone vegetative land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon environment of southern China,a long-term field experiment o...To improve current understanding of the water cycle,energy partitioning and CO2 exchange over hilly zone vegetative land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon environment of southern China,a long-term field experiment observatory was set up at Ningxiang,eastern Hunan Province.This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the field observations at the observatory collected from August to November 2012.Results show that significant diurnal variations in soil temperature occur only in shallow soil layers(0.05,0.10,and 0.20 m),and that heavy rainfall affects soil moisture in the deep layers(≥ 0.40 m).During the experimental period,significant diurnal variations in albedo,radiation components,energy components,and CO2 flux were observed,but little seasonal variation.Strong photosynthesis in the vegetation canopy enhanced the CO2 absorption and the latent heat released in daylight hours;Latent heat of evaporation was the main consumer of available energy in late summer.Because the field experiment data are demonstrably reliable,the observatory will provide reliable long-term measurements for future investigations of the land-atmosphere interaction over hilly land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon region of southern China.展开更多
In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes...In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage （TWS） in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES）： A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simula- tion revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simu- lation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all sce- narios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually oc- curring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hal River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.展开更多
The maximum rate of carboxylation （Vcax） is a key photosynthetic parameter for gross primary produc- tion （GPP） estimation in terrestrial biosphere models. A set of observation-based Vcax values, which take the ni...The maximum rate of carboxylation （Vcax） is a key photosynthetic parameter for gross primary produc- tion （GPP） estimation in terrestrial biosphere models. A set of observation-based Vcax values, which take the ni- trogen limitation on photosynthetic rates into consideration, are used in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model （CLM4.5）. However, CLM4.5 with carbon-nitrogen （CN） biogeochemistry （CLM4.5-CN） still uses an inde- pendent decay coefficient for nitrogen after the photosyn- thesis calculation. This means that the nitrogen limitation on the carbon cycle is accounted for twice when CN bio- geochemistry is active. Therefore, to avoid this double nitrogen down-regulation in CLM4.5-CN, the original Vcmax scheme is revised with a new one that only accounts for the transition between Vcmax and its potential value （without nitrogen limitation）. Compared to flux tower- based observations, the new Vcmax scheme reduces the root-mean-square error （RMSE） in GPP for China's Mainland by 13.7 g C m-2 yr-1, with a larger decrease over humid areas （39.2 g C m 2 yr-1）. Moreover, net primary production and leaf area index are also improved, with reductions in RMSE by 0.8% and 11.5%, respectively.展开更多
In this study, the high-accuracy multisource integrated Chinese land cover （MICLCover） dataset was used in version 4 of the Community Land Model （CLM4） to assess how the new land cover information affected land su...In this study, the high-accuracy multisource integrated Chinese land cover （MICLCover） dataset was used in version 4 of the Community Land Model （CLM4） to assess how the new land cover information affected land surface simulation over China. Compared to the default land cover dataset in CLM4, the MICL data indicated lower values for bare soil （14.6% reduction）, nee- dleleaf tree （3.6%）, and broadleaf tree （1.9%）; higher values for shrub cover （1.8% increase）, grassland （9.9%）, cropland （5.0%）, glaciers （0.5%）, lakes （1.6%）, and wetland （1.1%）; and unchanged for urban areas. Two comparative CLM4 simulations were conducted for the 33-yr period from 1972 to 2004, one using the MICL dataset and the other using the default dataset. The results revealed that the MICL data produced a 0.3% lower mean annual surface albedo over China than the original data. The largest contributor to the reduced value was semiarid regions （2.1% reduction）. The MICL-data albedo value agreed more closely with observations （MODIS broad- band black-sky albedo products） over arid and semiarid regions than for the original data to some extent. The simulated average sensible heat flux over China increased by only 0.1 W m 2 owing to the reduced values in arid and semiarid regions, as opposed to increases in humid and semihumid regions, while an increased latent heat flux of I W m-2 was reflected in almost identical changes over the whole region. In addition, the mean annual runoff simulated by CLM4 using MICL data decreased by 6.8 mm yr-1, primarily due to large simulated decreases in humid regions.展开更多
Simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM incorporating water table dynamics from 1 September 1982 to 28 August 2002 to detect precipitation and temperature extremes. Compared with observed r10(...Simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM incorporating water table dynamics from 1 September 1982 to 28 August 2002 to detect precipitation and temperature extremes. Compared with observed r10(number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm d–1), RegCM3_Hydro(the regional climate model with water table dynamics considered) simulated rain belts, including those in southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and provided data for arid to semi-arid areas such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. RegCM3_Hydro indicated a significant increasing trend of r95p(days with daily precipitation greater than the 95th percentile of daily amounts) for the Yangtze, Yellow, and Pearl River basins, consistent with r95p observations. The Haihe River Basin was also chosen as a specific case to detect the effect of groundwater on extreme precipitation using peaks over threshold(POT)-based generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with parameters estimated by the L-moment method. Quantile plots showed that all but a few of the plotted points were distributed near diagonal lines and the modeled data fitted well with the samples. Finally, the effects of water table dynamics on temperature extremes were also evaluated. In the Yellow River Basin and Songhuajiang River Basin, the trends of the number of warm days(TX95n) from RegCM3_Hydro matched observed values more closely when water table dynamics were considered, and clearly increasing numbers of warm days from 1983 to 2001 were detected.展开更多
The Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM) developed by the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can provide a link between surface states and satellite observations and simulate the passive ...The Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM) developed by the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can provide a link between surface states and satellite observations and simulate the passive microwave brightness temperature of the surface at low frequencies (from 1 GHz to 20 GHz).This study evaluated the performance of the CMEM cou-pled with the Community Land Model (CLM) (CMEM-CLM) using C-band (6.9 GHz) microwave brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) over East Asia.Preliminary results support the argument that the simulated brightness temperatures of CMEM-CLM from July 2005 to June 2010 are comparable to AMSR-E observational data.CMEM-CLM performed better for vertical polarization,for which the root mean square error was approximately 15 K,compared to over 30 K for horizontal polarization.An evaluation performed over seven sub-regions in China indicated that CMEM-CLM was able to capture the temporal evolution of C-band brightness temperatures well,and the best correlation with AMSR-E appeared over western Northwest China (over 0.9 for vertical polarization).However,larger biases were found over southern North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.展开更多
Satellite retrieval of atmospheric water vapor is intended to further understand the role played by the energy and water cycle to determine the Earth's weather and climate.The algorithm for operational retrieval o...Satellite retrieval of atmospheric water vapor is intended to further understand the role played by the energy and water cycle to determine the Earth's weather and climate.The algorithm for operational retrieval of total precipitable water (TPW) from the visible and infrared radiometer (VIRR) onboard Fengyun 3A (FY-3A) employs a split window technique for clear sky radiances over land and oceans during both day and night.The retrieved TPW is compared with that from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite and data from radiosonde observations (RAOB).During the study period,comparisons show that the FY-3A TPW is in general agreement with the gradients and distributions from the Terra TPW.Their zonal mean difference over East Asia is smaller in the daytime than at night,and the main difference occurs in the complex terrain at mid latitude near 30°N.Compared with RAOB,the zonal FY-3A and the Terra TPW have a moist bias at low latitudes and a dry bias at mid and high latitudes;in addition,the FY-3A TPW performs slightly better in zonal mean biases and the diurnal cycle.The temporal variation of the FY-3A and the Terra TPW generally fits the RAOB TPW with the FY-3A more accurate at night while Terra TPW more accurate during the daytime.Comparisons of correlations,root mean square differences and standard deviations indicate that the FY-3A TPW series is more consistent with the RAOB TPW at selected stations.As a result,the FY-3A TPW has some advantages over East Asia in both spatial and temporal dimensions.展开更多
In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations ...In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.展开更多
The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model ph...The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.展开更多
The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven r...The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China.A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin,Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin.When compared with the RegCM3 control run,RegCM3CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer,especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer(JJA)was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze,Haihe,Huaihe and Pearl Rivers.The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components(runof,evapotranspiration and total precipitation)over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation.Compared to the RegCM3,RegCM3CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin,but reduced precipitation in the other five basins.Furthermore,a lower summer leaf area index(1.20 m2m 2),greater root soil moisture(0.01 m3m 3),lower latent heat flux(1.34 W m 2),and greater sensible heat flux(2.04 W m 2)are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.展开更多
Information on the spatial and temporal patterns of surface carbon flux is crucial to understanding of source/sink mechanisms and projection of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. This study presents th...Information on the spatial and temporal patterns of surface carbon flux is crucial to understanding of source/sink mechanisms and projection of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. This study presents the construction and implementation of a terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system based on a dynamic vegetation and terrestrial carbon model Vegetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil(VEGAS) with an advanced assimilation algorithm, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter(LETKF, hereafter LETKF-VEGAS). An observing system simulation experiment(OSSE) framework was designed to evaluate the reliability of this system, and numerical experiments conducted by the OSSE using leaf area index(LAI) observations suggest that the LETKF-VEGAS can improve the estimations of leaf carbon pool and LAI significantly, with reduced root mean square errors and increased correlation coefficients with true values, as compared to a control run without assimilation. Furthermore, the LETKF-VEGAS has the potential to provide more accurate estimations of the net primary productivity(NPP) and carbon flux to atmosphere(CFta).展开更多
基金the Knowledge Innovation Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-SW-317),the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 90411007 and 40275023), and the Hundred Talents Program ofChinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional cli-mates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model forthe simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climatescenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climateB2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, theHaihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production ascompared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in theflood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.
基金Acknowledgment This study was supported by the National Key Basic Research Development Program Project （2010CB428400） and the Natural Science Foundation of China （51279140）.
文摘This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China （EMRC）. It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program （2010CB428400）, where the major research focuses are detection and attribution, extreme floods and droughts, and adaptation of water resources management. Preliminary conclusions can be summarized into four points： 1） Water cycling and water resource changes in the EMRC are rather complicated as the region is impacted by natural changes relating to the strong monsoon influence and also by climate change impacts caused by CO2 emissions due to anthropogenic forcing; 2） the rate of natural variability contributing to the influence on precipitation accounts for about 70%, and the rate from anthropogenic forcing accounts for 30% on average in the EMRC. However, with future scenarios of increasing CO2 emissions, the contribution rate from anthropogenic forcing will increase and water resources management will experience greater issues related to the climate change impact; 3） Extreme floods and droughts in the EMRC will be an increasing trend, based on IPCC-AR5 scenarios; 4） Along with rising temperatures of 1 ~C in North China, the agricultural water consumption will increase to about 4% of total water consumption. Therefore, climate change is making a significant impact and will be a risk to the EMRC, which covers almost all of the eight major river basins, such as the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, and Pearl River, and to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （middle line）. To ensure water security, it is urgently necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and reduce the vulnerability of water resources and associated risks.
文摘Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experiments using regional climate model RegCM4. In the first experiment used to study the climatic responses to human carbon emissions, the model were configured over entire China because the impacts of carbon emissions can be detected across the whole country. Results from the first experiment revealed that near-surface air temperature may significantly increase from 2007 to 2059 at a rate exceeding 0.1 ~C per decade in most areas across the country; southwestern and southeastern China also showed increasing trends in summer precipitation, with rates exceeding 10 mm per decade over the same period. In summer, only northern China showed an increasing trend of evapotranspiration, with increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade; in winter, increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade were observed in most regions. These effects are believed to be caused by global warming from human carbon emissions. In the second experiment used to study the effects of human water use, the model were configured over a limited region-- Haihe River Basin in the northern China, because compared with the human carbon emissions, the effects of human water use are much more local and regional, and the Haihe River Basin is the most typical region in China that suffers from both intensive human groundwater exploitation and surface water diversion. We incorporated a scheme of human water regulation into RegCM4 and conducted the second experiment. Model outputs showed that the groundwater table severely declined by -10 m in 1971-2000 through human groundwater over- exploitation in the basin; in fact, current conditions are so extreme that even reducing the pumping rate by half cannot eliminate the ground- water depletion cones observed in the area. Other hydrological and climatic elements, such as soil moisture, runoff generation, air humidity, precipitation, wind field, and soil and air temperature, were also significantly affected by anthropogenic water withdrawal and consumption, although these effects could be mitigated by reducing the amount of water drawn for extraction and application.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program (No.2010CB428403, 2010CB951001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.91125016)
文摘The regional climate model RegCM4 was used to investigate the regional climate effects of land cover change over China. Two 24-year simulations （1978-2001）, one with the land cover derived from the MODIS data and the other with the CLCV （Chinese land cover derived from vegetation map） data, were conducted for a region encompassing China. The differences between the MODIS and CLCV data reflect characteristics of desertification and degradation of vegetation in China. Results indicate that the land cover change has important impacts on local climate through mechanisms related to changes in surface energy, water budgets and macro-scale circulation. In summer, the land cover change leads to a decrease in surface air temperature over southern China, a reduction in precipitation and an increase in surface air temperature in the transitional climate zone and the northern Tibetan Plateau, and an increase in inter-annual variability of surface air temperature in the marginal monsoon zone and northwestern China. Strengthened southwesterly winds increase precipitation to some extent in central and eastern Inner Mongolia by enhancing water vapor transport. In winter, enhanced northerly winds, bringing more dry and cold air, lead to a reduction in precipitation and temperature over areas south of the Yellow River.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05110102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41075062)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951001)
文摘To improve current understanding of the water cycle,energy partitioning and CO2 exchange over hilly zone vegetative land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon environment of southern China,a long-term field experiment observatory was set up at Ningxiang,eastern Hunan Province.This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the field observations at the observatory collected from August to November 2012.Results show that significant diurnal variations in soil temperature occur only in shallow soil layers(0.05,0.10,and 0.20 m),and that heavy rainfall affects soil moisture in the deep layers(≥ 0.40 m).During the experimental period,significant diurnal variations in albedo,radiation components,energy components,and CO2 flux were observed,but little seasonal variation.Strong photosynthesis in the vegetation canopy enhanced the CO2 absorption and the latent heat released in daylight hours;Latent heat of evaporation was the main consumer of available energy in late summer.Because the field experiment data are demonstrably reliable,the observatory will provide reliable long-term measurements for future investigations of the land-atmosphere interaction over hilly land surfaces in the subtropical monsoon region of southern China.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grants 2010CB428403 and 2009CB421407)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants 41075062 and 91125016)
文摘In this study, a historic simulation covering the period from 1951 to 2000 and three projected scenario simulations covering 2001-2050 were conducted em- ploying the regional climate model RegCM4 to detect the changes of terrestrial water storage （TWS） in major river basins of China, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES）： A1B, A2, and B1. The historic simula- tion revealed that the variations of TWS, which are dominated by precipitation in the basins, rely highly on their climatic features. Compared with the historic simu- lation, the changes of TWS in the scenario simulations showed strong regional differences. However, for all sce- narios, TWS was found to increase most in Northeast China and surrounding mountains around the Tibetan Plateau, and decrease most in eastern regions of China. Unlike the low seasonal variations of TWS in arid areas, the TWS showed strong seasonal variations in eastern monsoon areas, with the maximum changes usually oc- curring in summer, when TWS increases most in a year. Among the three scenario simulations, TWS increased most in Songhua River Basin of B1 scenario, and de- creased most in Pearl River Basin of A2 scenario and Hal River Basin of A1B scenario, accompanied by different annual trends and seasonal variations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91125016 and 41305066)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05110102)
文摘The maximum rate of carboxylation （Vcax） is a key photosynthetic parameter for gross primary produc- tion （GPP） estimation in terrestrial biosphere models. A set of observation-based Vcax values, which take the ni- trogen limitation on photosynthetic rates into consideration, are used in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model （CLM4.5）. However, CLM4.5 with carbon-nitrogen （CN） biogeochemistry （CLM4.5-CN） still uses an inde- pendent decay coefficient for nitrogen after the photosyn- thesis calculation. This means that the nitrogen limitation on the carbon cycle is accounted for twice when CN bio- geochemistry is active. Therefore, to avoid this double nitrogen down-regulation in CLM4.5-CN, the original Vcmax scheme is revised with a new one that only accounts for the transition between Vcmax and its potential value （without nitrogen limitation）. Compared to flux tower- based observations, the new Vcmax scheme reduces the root-mean-square error （RMSE） in GPP for China's Mainland by 13.7 g C m-2 yr-1, with a larger decrease over humid areas （39.2 g C m 2 yr-1）. Moreover, net primary production and leaf area index are also improved, with reductions in RMSE by 0.8% and 11.5%, respectively.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grants Nos. 2010CB951101 and 2010CB428403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91125016)
文摘In this study, the high-accuracy multisource integrated Chinese land cover （MICLCover） dataset was used in version 4 of the Community Land Model （CLM4） to assess how the new land cover information affected land surface simulation over China. Compared to the default land cover dataset in CLM4, the MICL data indicated lower values for bare soil （14.6% reduction）, nee- dleleaf tree （3.6%）, and broadleaf tree （1.9%）; higher values for shrub cover （1.8% increase）, grassland （9.9%）, cropland （5.0%）, glaciers （0.5%）, lakes （1.6%）, and wetland （1.1%）; and unchanged for urban areas. Two comparative CLM4 simulations were conducted for the 33-yr period from 1972 to 2004, one using the MICL dataset and the other using the default dataset. The results revealed that the MICL data produced a 0.3% lower mean annual surface albedo over China than the original data. The largest contributor to the reduced value was semiarid regions （2.1% reduction）. The MICL-data albedo value agreed more closely with observations （MODIS broad- band black-sky albedo products） over arid and semiarid regions than for the original data to some extent. The simulated average sensible heat flux over China increased by only 0.1 W m 2 owing to the reduced values in arid and semiarid regions, as opposed to increases in humid and semihumid regions, while an increased latent heat flux of I W m-2 was reflected in almost identical changes over the whole region. In addition, the mean annual runoff simulated by CLM4 using MICL data decreased by 6.8 mm yr-1, primarily due to large simulated decreases in humid regions.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB428403 and 2009CB421407)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91125016)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110102)
文摘Simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM incorporating water table dynamics from 1 September 1982 to 28 August 2002 to detect precipitation and temperature extremes. Compared with observed r10(number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm d–1), RegCM3_Hydro(the regional climate model with water table dynamics considered) simulated rain belts, including those in southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and provided data for arid to semi-arid areas such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. RegCM3_Hydro indicated a significant increasing trend of r95p(days with daily precipitation greater than the 95th percentile of daily amounts) for the Yangtze, Yellow, and Pearl River basins, consistent with r95p observations. The Haihe River Basin was also chosen as a specific case to detect the effect of groundwater on extreme precipitation using peaks over threshold(POT)-based generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with parameters estimated by the L-moment method. Quantile plots showed that all but a few of the plotted points were distributed near diagonal lines and the modeled data fitted well with the samples. Finally, the effects of water table dynamics on temperature extremes were also evaluated. In the Yellow River Basin and Songhuajiang River Basin, the trends of the number of warm days(TX95n) from RegCM3_Hydro matched observed values more closely when water table dynamics were considered, and clearly increasing numbers of warm days from 1983 to 2001 were detected.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grants 2010CB951101 and 2010CB951001the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41075062
文摘The Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM) developed by the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can provide a link between surface states and satellite observations and simulate the passive microwave brightness temperature of the surface at low frequencies (from 1 GHz to 20 GHz).This study evaluated the performance of the CMEM cou-pled with the Community Land Model (CLM) (CMEM-CLM) using C-band (6.9 GHz) microwave brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) over East Asia.Preliminary results support the argument that the simulated brightness temperatures of CMEM-CLM from July 2005 to June 2010 are comparable to AMSR-E observational data.CMEM-CLM performed better for vertical polarization,for which the root mean square error was approximately 15 K,compared to over 30 K for horizontal polarization.An evaluation performed over seven sub-regions in China indicated that CMEM-CLM was able to capture the temporal evolution of C-band brightness temperatures well,and the best correlation with AMSR-E appeared over western Northwest China (over 0.9 for vertical polarization).However,larger biases were found over southern North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(Grant No. 2007AA12Z144)the Professional Projects (Grant Nos.GYHY200706005 and GYHY200906036)the China Meteoro-logical Administration New Technology Promotion Project (GrantNo. CMATG2008Z04)
文摘Satellite retrieval of atmospheric water vapor is intended to further understand the role played by the energy and water cycle to determine the Earth's weather and climate.The algorithm for operational retrieval of total precipitable water (TPW) from the visible and infrared radiometer (VIRR) onboard Fengyun 3A (FY-3A) employs a split window technique for clear sky radiances over land and oceans during both day and night.The retrieved TPW is compared with that from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite and data from radiosonde observations (RAOB).During the study period,comparisons show that the FY-3A TPW is in general agreement with the gradients and distributions from the Terra TPW.Their zonal mean difference over East Asia is smaller in the daytime than at night,and the main difference occurs in the complex terrain at mid latitude near 30°N.Compared with RAOB,the zonal FY-3A and the Terra TPW have a moist bias at low latitudes and a dry bias at mid and high latitudes;in addition,the FY-3A TPW performs slightly better in zonal mean biases and the diurnal cycle.The temporal variation of the FY-3A and the Terra TPW generally fits the RAOB TPW with the FY-3A more accurate at night while Terra TPW more accurate during the daytime.Comparisons of correlations,root mean square differences and standard deviations indicate that the FY-3A TPW series is more consistent with the RAOB TPW at selected stations.As a result,the FY-3A TPW has some advantages over East Asia in both spatial and temporal dimensions.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grants 2010CB951001 and 2010CB428403the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41075062the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) under Grant GYHY201006037
文摘In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41405083 and 91437220)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.2015JJ3098)+1 种基金the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS(QYZDY-SSW-DQC012)the Fund Project for The Education Department of Hunan Province(Grant No.16A234)
文摘The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Nos.2010CB428403 and 2010CB951001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.91125016)
文摘The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China.A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin,Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin.When compared with the RegCM3 control run,RegCM3CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer,especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer(JJA)was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze,Haihe,Huaihe and Pearl Rivers.The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components(runof,evapotranspiration and total precipitation)over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation.Compared to the RegCM3,RegCM3CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin,but reduced precipitation in the other five basins.Furthermore,a lower summer leaf area index(1.20 m2m 2),greater root soil moisture(0.01 m3m 3),lower latent heat flux(1.34 W m 2),and greater sensible heat flux(2.04 W m 2)are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305066)the Special Funds for Public Welfare of China (Grant No. GYHY201306045)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB951101 and 2010CB428403)
文摘Information on the spatial and temporal patterns of surface carbon flux is crucial to understanding of source/sink mechanisms and projection of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. This study presents the construction and implementation of a terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system based on a dynamic vegetation and terrestrial carbon model Vegetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil(VEGAS) with an advanced assimilation algorithm, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter(LETKF, hereafter LETKF-VEGAS). An observing system simulation experiment(OSSE) framework was designed to evaluate the reliability of this system, and numerical experiments conducted by the OSSE using leaf area index(LAI) observations suggest that the LETKF-VEGAS can improve the estimations of leaf carbon pool and LAI significantly, with reduced root mean square errors and increased correlation coefficients with true values, as compared to a control run without assimilation. Furthermore, the LETKF-VEGAS has the potential to provide more accurate estimations of the net primary productivity(NPP) and carbon flux to atmosphere(CFta).
