This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and th...This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.展开更多
A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion m...A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model＇s performance, using CEDVAL （Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Disper- sion Models） wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios; and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.展开更多
The simulation performance over complex building clusters of a wind simulation model（Wind Information Field Fast Analysis model, WIFFA） in a micro-scale air pollutant dispersion model system（Urban Microscale Air Po...The simulation performance over complex building clusters of a wind simulation model（Wind Information Field Fast Analysis model, WIFFA） in a micro-scale air pollutant dispersion model system（Urban Microscale Air Pollution dispersion Simulation model, UMAPS） is evaluated using various wind tunnel experimental data including the CEDVAL（Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Micro-Scale Dispersion Models） wind tunnel experiment data and the NJU-FZ experiment data（Nanjing University-Fang Zhuang neighborhood wind tunnel experiment data）. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings well, and the flow patterns in urban street canyons and building clusters can also be represented. Due to the complex shapes of buildings and their distributions, the simulation deviations/discrepancies from the measurements are usually caused by the simplification of the building shapes and the determination of the key zone sizes. The computational efficiencies of different cases are also discussed in this paper. The model has a high computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical models that solve the Navier–Stokes equations, and can produce very high-resolution（1–5 m） wind fields of a complex neighborhood scale urban building canopy（～ 1 km ×1km） in less than 3 min when run on a personal computer.展开更多
Extreme heat over the North China Plain is typically induced by anomalous descending flows associated with anticyclonic circulation anomalies. However, an extreme heat event that happened in the North China Plain regi...Extreme heat over the North China Plain is typically induced by anomalous descending flows associated with anticyclonic circulation anomalies. However, an extreme heat event that happened in the North China Plain region on 12–13 July 2015,with maximum temperature higher than 40℃ at some stations, was characterized by only a weak simultaneous appearance of an anomalous anticyclone and descending flow, suggesting that some other factor(s) may have induced this heat event. In this study, we used the forecast data produced by the Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling operational forecast system, which predicted the heat event well, to investigate the formation mechanism of this extreme heat event. We calculated the cumulative heat in the mixed-layer air column of North China to represent the change in surface air temperature. The cumulative heat was composed of sensible heat flux from the ground surface and the horizontal heat flux convergence. The results indicated that the horizontal heat flux in the mixed layer played a crucial role in the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperatures.The horizontal heat flux was found to be induced by distinct distributions of air temperatures and horizontal winds at low levels during the two days, implying a complexity of the low-level atmosphere in causing the extreme heat.展开更多
This paper describes a fire forecast system—Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire(WRF-Fire)—that is employed to simulate a real wildfire case in Xichang,Sichuan Province,Southwest China on 30 March 2020 at a 100-m r...This paper describes a fire forecast system—Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire(WRF-Fire)—that is employed to simulate a real wildfire case in Xichang,Sichuan Province,Southwest China on 30 March 2020 at a 100-m resolution over the fire area,in order to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve the atmospheric turbulence.Four sensitivity experiments were conducted to analyze the impacts of atmospheric model grid spacing and fire–atmosphere interaction on simulated meteorological fields and fire behavior.The results indicate that finer horizontal grid spacing in the atmospheric model improves the accuracy of wind,temperature,and moisture simulations in the near surface layer.Especially,it can better describe local wind field characteristics,capture microscale wind speed fluctuations,and produce more significant effect from fire–atmosphere interaction.The mass and energy released by the fire model and its feedback to the atmospheric model exhibit enhanced heterogeneous characteristics.The simulated fire area aligns well with the observation,with KAPPA coefficient(KC)of 0.56–0.59 and spatial correlation coefficient(SC) of 0.52–0.59.For this real case,the influence of heterogeneous land surface on the fire behavior is much greater than the atmosphere–fire interaction.The study suggests that WRFFire holds high potential as a real wildfire simulation tool,offering a new and feasible approach for fire prediction.展开更多
Urbanization-related precipitation and surface runoff changes have been widely investigated,but few studies have directly quantified these changes and their link to urbanization in the hydrological cycle.A two-way dyn...Urbanization-related precipitation and surface runoff changes have been widely investigated,but few studies have directly quantified these changes and their link to urbanization in the hydrological cycle.A two-way dynamically coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling system,Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-Hydro,has been applied in this study to perform the quantification.The offline WRF-Hydro was first calibrated and validated for several flooding events against gauge observed streamflow data,with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency reaching 0.9.Compared to the WRF model,WRF-Hydro resolves more detailed rainfall pattern features and reproduces the gauge rainfall with a correlation coefficient of 0.8.Then,the impact of urbanization on hydrometeorological processes was investigated with coupled WRF-Hydro sensitivity simulations over the Qinhuai River basin of China during 2 June–31 July 2015.The results indicate that urbanization enhances regional precipitation,resulting in an indirect increase in surface runoff,overland flow,and streamflow by 16.7,93.5,and 111.2 mm,respectively;however,the impervious area results in higher surface runoff,overland flow,and streamflow.Moreover,changes in main hydrometeorological processes further impact the atmospheric–terrestrial water budget,resulting in a decrease in terrestrial water storage and an increase(a decrease)in precipitable water storage in the middle(lower)parts of the lower troposphere.These changes are likely associated with the warmer urban environment than rural areas.Increased water vapor and strengthened convective conditions in the middle part of the lower troposphere due to urban warming are advantageous to the formation of precipitation in urban areas,which in turn increases surface runoff,thereby facilitating the water cycle and altering the atmospheric–terrestrial water budget.展开更多
This study investigated how the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains affect low-level jets(LLJs)in the Beijing area,based on conventional radiosonde observations from Nanjiao Observatory(2016–2017)and high-res...This study investigated how the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains affect low-level jets(LLJs)in the Beijing area,based on conventional radiosonde observations from Nanjiao Observatory(2016–2017)and high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting–Advanced Research WRF(WRF-ARW)model simulations.Analysis of radiosonde observations indicated that LLJs in the study area are mainly from the southwest and northwest directions,with occurrence frequency of 44.6%and 33.0%,respectively.Southwest(northwest)LLJs are aligned parallel(perpendicular)to the orientation of the Taihang Mountain Range.Terrain sensitivity experiments using the WRF-ARW model were then conducted to examine the effects of terrain forcing on the northwest and southwest LLJs,with adopted terrain heights of 100%and 50%.The results showed that for northwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of the Taihang Mountain Range led to weakening of jet intensity by approximately 20%and reduction in jet maximum height by approximately 250 m;lowering the Yanshan Mountain Range had minor influence on the northwest LLJs,with only a 5.2%reduction in intensity and no substantial change in jet maximum height.For southwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of both the Taihang and Yanshan Mountain ranges resulted in minor changes in the intensity and height of the jets.Further analysis revealed that the topography in the Beijing area could modulate the height and intensity of the stable layer by altering the inversion structure within the boundary layer.The LLJs can develop rapidly within the stable layer,and both the location and the scale of the jet core exhibited reasonable agreement with the extent of the stable layer.展开更多
Communities play a crucial role in protecting the health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly,low-income groups,and high-risk individuals during cold spells.However,current strategies for responding to cold s...Communities play a crucial role in protecting the health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly,low-income groups,and high-risk individuals during cold spells.However,current strategies for responding to cold spells primarily consist of programmatic policies that lack practicality,specificity,and detailed implementation guidelines for community workers.Therefore,this study aims to identify and analyze the challenges faced by communities in responding to cold spells,review international experiences,and develop a set of practical checklists for community-level health protection.These checklists will assist community workers and volunteers in effectively preparing for,responding to,and recovering from cold spells.展开更多
Over the past decades,a large number of studies have been carried out in the field of urban meteorology in China.This paper summarizes the main progress in urban meteorology research from four aspects:urban meteorolog...Over the past decades,a large number of studies have been carried out in the field of urban meteorology in China.This paper summarizes the main progress in urban meteorology research from four aspects:urban meteorological observation network and field campaign,multi-scale model of urban meteorology,interaction between urban meteorology and atmospheric environment,and the impacts of urbanization on weather and climate.Major advances are as follows.China’s major cities have established or are improving comprehensive urban meteorological observation networks characterized by multi-platform,multi-variable,multi-scale,multi-link,and multi-function.Beijing,Nanjing,Shanghai,and other cities carried out urban meteorological field campaigns,which were included in the WMO research demonstration project.Wind tunnel experiments and scale-model outdoor experiments were successfully conducted.Multi-scale urban meteorological and air quality prediction numerical model systems have been developed and put into operational use.The urban heat island effect;urban impacts on precipitation,regional climate,and air quality;urban planning;and interaction between urban meteorology and atmospheric environment are extensively investigated.Finally,efforts to improve observational technology,data assimilation,and urban system modeling,to explore the impacts of urbanization on environment and human health,and to provide integrated urban hydro-meteorological climate and environmental services are planned ahead.展开更多
With the intensification of pollution and urbanization, the aerosol radiation effect continues to play an important role in the urban boundary layer. In this paper, a winter pollution process in Beijing has been taken...With the intensification of pollution and urbanization, the aerosol radiation effect continues to play an important role in the urban boundary layer. In this paper, a winter pollution process in Beijing has been taken as an example, and a new aerosol vertical profile in the radiative parameterization scheme within the Weather Forecast Research and Forecasting(WRF) model has been updated to study the effect of aerosols on radiation and the boundary layer. Furthermore, the interactions among aerosols,urbanization, and planetary boundary layer(PBL) meteorology were discussed through a series of numerical experiments. The results show the following:(1) The optimization improves the performance of the model in simulating the distribution features of air temperature, humidity, and wind in Beijing.(2) The aerosols reduce the surface temperature by reducing solar radiation and increasing the temperature in the upper layer by absorbing or backscattering solar radiation. The changes in the PBL temperature lead to more stable atmospheric stratification, reducing the energy transfer from the surface and the height of the boundary layer.(3) With the increase in the aerosol optical depth, the atmospheric stratification most likely becomes stable over rural areas, most likely becomes stable over suburb areas, and has great difficultly becoming stable over urban areas. Aerosol radiative forcing,underlying urban surfaces, and the interaction between them are the main factors that affect the changes in the meteorological elements in the PBL.展开更多
We used simultaneous measurements of surface PM_（2.5） concentration and vertical profiles of aerosol concentration,temperature, and humidity, together with regional air quality model simulations, to study an episode...We used simultaneous measurements of surface PM_（2.5） concentration and vertical profiles of aerosol concentration,temperature, and humidity, together with regional air quality model simulations, to study an episode of aerosol pollution in Beijing from 15 to 19 November 2016. The potential effects of easterly and southerly winds on the surface concentrations and vertical profiles of the PM_（2.5） pollution were investigated. Favorable easterly winds produced strong upward motion and were able to transport the PM_（2.5） pollution at the surface to the upper levels of the atmosphere. The amount of surface PM_（2.5） pollution transported by the easterly winds was determined by the strength and height of the upward motion produced by the easterly winds and the initial height of the upward wind. A greater amount of PM_（2.5） pollution was transported to upper levels of the atmosphere by upward winds with a lower initial height. The pollutants were diluted by easterly winds from clean ocean air masses. The inversion layer was destroyed by the easterly winds and the surface pollutants and warm air masses were then lifted to the upper levels of the atmosphere, where they re-established a multi-layer inversion. This region of inversion was strengthened by the southerly winds, increasing the severity of pollution. A vortex was produced by southerly winds that led to the convergence of air along the Taihang Mountains. Pollutants were transported from southern–central Hebei Province to Beijing in the boundary layer. Warm advection associated with the southerly winds intensified the inversion produced by the easterly winds and a more stable boundary layer was formed. The layer with high PM_（2.5） concentration became dee-per with persistent southerly winds of a certain depth. The polluted air masses then rose over the northern Taihang Mountains to the northern mountainous regions of Hebei Province.展开更多
Selecting proper parameterization scheme combinations for a particular application is of great interest to the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model users.This study aims to develop an objective method for identi...Selecting proper parameterization scheme combinations for a particular application is of great interest to the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model users.This study aims to develop an objective method for identifying a set of scheme combinations to form a multi-physics ensemble suitable for short-range precipitation forecasting in the Greater Beijing area.The ensemble is created by using statistical techniques and some heuristics.An initial sample of 90 scheme combinations was first generated by using Latin hypercube sampling(LHS).Then,after several rounds of screening,a final ensemble of 40 combinations were chosen.The ensemble forecasts generated for both the training and verification cases using these combinations were evaluated based on several verification metrics,including threat score(TS),Brier score(BS),relative operating characteristics(ROC),and ranked probability score(RPS).The results show that TS of the final ensemble improved by 9%-33%over that of the initial ensemble.The reliability was improved for rain≤10 mm day^-1,but decreased slightly for rain>10 mm day^-1 due to insufficient samples.The resolution remained about the same.The final ensemble forecasts were better than that generated from randomly sampled scheme combinations.These results suggest that the proposed approach is an effective way to select a multi-physics ensemble for generating accurate and reliable forecasts.展开更多
This paper introduces a fast urban microscale meteorological model with a horizontal resolution of O(10)m,named URBAN(Urban Rapid&Building-Aware Neighborhood),which is capable of rapid assessment of meteorological...This paper introduces a fast urban microscale meteorological model with a horizontal resolution of O(10)m,named URBAN(Urban Rapid&Building-Aware Neighborhood),which is capable of rapid assessment of meteorological fields over key urban areas,including wind speed,air temperature,humidity and thermal comfort index,with the execution time less than10 minutes consuming 1 CPU core.URBAN uses a fast wind diagnostic method to construct three-dimensional(3-D)wind fields surrounding complex building clusters with their geometry resolved explicitly.To enhance the accuracy of wind reconstruction and the continuity of the initial wind field around irregular buildings,we propose a new parameterization method based on stream functions,which can accurately characterize the influences of complex urban building clusters on the three-dimensional wind field.The model can provide various results for the meteorological service of large outdoor activities,including conventional meteorological elements(wind,temperature,humidity,radiation,etc.)and the Universal Thermal Comfort Index,which is derived from the relationship between physiological processes and environmental meteorological conditions.In this paper,URBAN is applied to develop an automatic analysis and forecast system of microscale meteorological elements over the central Beijing region in summer during a large outdoor event.By comparing with the half-hourly observations from three auto weather stations(AWSs)in the region,the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the modeled 10-meter-height wind speed,2-meter-height air temperature and humidity are 0.98 m s^(-1),1.37℃and 7.37%,respectively.展开更多
Vegetation constitutes one of the fundamental types of land use on Earth.The presence of trees in urban areas can decrease local winds and exchange sensible and latent heat with the surrounding environments,thus exert...Vegetation constitutes one of the fundamental types of land use on Earth.The presence of trees in urban areas can decrease local winds and exchange sensible and latent heat with the surrounding environments,thus exerting notable influences on the urban microenvironment.A better understanding of the turbulent transfer of momentum and scalars around vegetation canopy could significantly contribute to improvement of the urban environment.This work develops a large-eddy simulation(LES)method that is applicable to model the flow and scalar transport over the forest canopy.We study the atmospheric flow over complex forested areas under typical weather conditions by coupling LES to the mesoscale model.Models of radiation and energy balance have been developed with explicit treatment of the vegetation canopy.By examining the flow over a forest canopy under a range of stability conditions,we found that buoyancy enhances or suppresses turbulent mixing in unstable or stable atmosphere respectively,with decreasing or increasing wind shear,respectively.From the multiscale modeling of the Beijing Olympic Forest Park,the present coupling scheme proves to better resolve the diurnal variations in wind speed,temperature,and relative humidity over complex urban terrains.The coupling scheme is superior to the traditional mesoscale model in terms of wind field simulation.This is mainly because the coupling scheme not only takes the influences of external mesoscale flow into consideration,but also resolves the heterogeneous urban surface at a fine scale by downscaling,thus better reproducing the complex flow and turbulent transport in the urban roughness sublayer.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the Guangdong Province University Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Project (580520049)the Guangdong Ocean University Scientific Research Startup Fund (R20021)the Key Laboratory of Plateau and Basin Rainstorm and Drought Disasters in Sichuan Province Open Research Fund (SZKT201902)。
文摘This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375014)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2011CB 952002)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, China
文摘A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model＇s performance, using CEDVAL （Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Disper- sion Models） wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios; and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.
基金supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201106049)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51538005 and 41375014)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change,China
文摘The simulation performance over complex building clusters of a wind simulation model（Wind Information Field Fast Analysis model, WIFFA） in a micro-scale air pollutant dispersion model system（Urban Microscale Air Pollution dispersion Simulation model, UMAPS） is evaluated using various wind tunnel experimental data including the CEDVAL（Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Micro-Scale Dispersion Models） wind tunnel experiment data and the NJU-FZ experiment data（Nanjing University-Fang Zhuang neighborhood wind tunnel experiment data）. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings well, and the flow patterns in urban street canyons and building clusters can also be represented. Due to the complex shapes of buildings and their distributions, the simulation deviations/discrepancies from the measurements are usually caused by the simplification of the building shapes and the determination of the key zone sizes. The computational efficiencies of different cases are also discussed in this paper. The model has a high computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical models that solve the Navier–Stokes equations, and can produce very high-resolution（1–5 m） wind fields of a complex neighborhood scale urban building canopy（～ 1 km ×1km） in less than 3 min when run on a personal computer.
基金sponsored by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2015DFA20870)
文摘Extreme heat over the North China Plain is typically induced by anomalous descending flows associated with anticyclonic circulation anomalies. However, an extreme heat event that happened in the North China Plain region on 12–13 July 2015,with maximum temperature higher than 40℃ at some stations, was characterized by only a weak simultaneous appearance of an anomalous anticyclone and descending flow, suggesting that some other factor(s) may have induced this heat event. In this study, we used the forecast data produced by the Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling operational forecast system, which predicted the heat event well, to investigate the formation mechanism of this extreme heat event. We calculated the cumulative heat in the mixed-layer air column of North China to represent the change in surface air temperature. The cumulative heat was composed of sensible heat flux from the ground surface and the horizontal heat flux convergence. The results indicated that the horizontal heat flux in the mixed layer played a crucial role in the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperatures.The horizontal heat flux was found to be induced by distinct distributions of air temperatures and horizontal winds at low levels during the two days, implying a complexity of the low-level atmosphere in causing the extreme heat.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC3004105)National Natural Science Foundation of China (42275201)。
文摘This paper describes a fire forecast system—Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire(WRF-Fire)—that is employed to simulate a real wildfire case in Xichang,Sichuan Province,Southwest China on 30 March 2020 at a 100-m resolution over the fire area,in order to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve the atmospheric turbulence.Four sensitivity experiments were conducted to analyze the impacts of atmospheric model grid spacing and fire–atmosphere interaction on simulated meteorological fields and fire behavior.The results indicate that finer horizontal grid spacing in the atmospheric model improves the accuracy of wind,temperature,and moisture simulations in the near surface layer.Especially,it can better describe local wind field characteristics,capture microscale wind speed fluctuations,and produce more significant effect from fire–atmosphere interaction.The mass and energy released by the fire model and its feedback to the atmospheric model exhibit enhanced heterogeneous characteristics.The simulated fire area aligns well with the observation,with KAPPA coefficient(KC)of 0.56–0.59 and spatial correlation coefficient(SC) of 0.52–0.59.For this real case,the influence of heterogeneous land surface on the fire behavior is much greater than the atmosphere–fire interaction.The study suggests that WRFFire holds high potential as a real wildfire simulation tool,offering a new and feasible approach for fire prediction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205193 and 42330608)Open Fundation of China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory(23SWQXM001)Young Beijing Scholars Program(2018-007)。
文摘Urbanization-related precipitation and surface runoff changes have been widely investigated,but few studies have directly quantified these changes and their link to urbanization in the hydrological cycle.A two-way dynamically coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling system,Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-Hydro,has been applied in this study to perform the quantification.The offline WRF-Hydro was first calibrated and validated for several flooding events against gauge observed streamflow data,with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency reaching 0.9.Compared to the WRF model,WRF-Hydro resolves more detailed rainfall pattern features and reproduces the gauge rainfall with a correlation coefficient of 0.8.Then,the impact of urbanization on hydrometeorological processes was investigated with coupled WRF-Hydro sensitivity simulations over the Qinhuai River basin of China during 2 June–31 July 2015.The results indicate that urbanization enhances regional precipitation,resulting in an indirect increase in surface runoff,overland flow,and streamflow by 16.7,93.5,and 111.2 mm,respectively;however,the impervious area results in higher surface runoff,overland flow,and streamflow.Moreover,changes in main hydrometeorological processes further impact the atmospheric–terrestrial water budget,resulting in a decrease in terrestrial water storage and an increase(a decrease)in precipitable water storage in the middle(lower)parts of the lower troposphere.These changes are likely associated with the warmer urban environment than rural areas.Increased water vapor and strengthened convective conditions in the middle part of the lower troposphere due to urban warming are advantageous to the formation of precipitation in urban areas,which in turn increases surface runoff,thereby facilitating the water cycle and altering the atmospheric–terrestrial water budget.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975011)。
文摘This study investigated how the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains affect low-level jets(LLJs)in the Beijing area,based on conventional radiosonde observations from Nanjiao Observatory(2016–2017)and high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting–Advanced Research WRF(WRF-ARW)model simulations.Analysis of radiosonde observations indicated that LLJs in the study area are mainly from the southwest and northwest directions,with occurrence frequency of 44.6%and 33.0%,respectively.Southwest(northwest)LLJs are aligned parallel(perpendicular)to the orientation of the Taihang Mountain Range.Terrain sensitivity experiments using the WRF-ARW model were then conducted to examine the effects of terrain forcing on the northwest and southwest LLJs,with adopted terrain heights of 100%and 50%.The results showed that for northwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of the Taihang Mountain Range led to weakening of jet intensity by approximately 20%and reduction in jet maximum height by approximately 250 m;lowering the Yanshan Mountain Range had minor influence on the northwest LLJs,with only a 5.2%reduction in intensity and no substantial change in jet maximum height.For southwest LLJs,reduction in the elevation of both the Taihang and Yanshan Mountain ranges resulted in minor changes in the intensity and height of the jets.Further analysis revealed that the topography in the Beijing area could modulate the height and intensity of the stable layer by altering the inversion structure within the boundary layer.The LLJs can develop rapidly within the stable layer,and both the location and the scale of the jet core exhibited reasonable agreement with the extent of the stable layer.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205181)China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program(CMA-CCSP)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(72091514)the Youth Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration(CMA2023QN15).
文摘Communities play a crucial role in protecting the health of vulnerable populations such as the elderly,low-income groups,and high-risk individuals during cold spells.However,current strategies for responding to cold spells primarily consist of programmatic policies that lack practicality,specificity,and detailed implementation guidelines for community workers.Therefore,this study aims to identify and analyze the challenges faced by communities in responding to cold spells,review international experiences,and develop a set of practical checklists for community-level health protection.These checklists will assist community workers and volunteers in effectively preparing for,responding to,and recovering from cold spells.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41775047 and 41425020)Young Beijing-Scholars Program。
文摘Over the past decades,a large number of studies have been carried out in the field of urban meteorology in China.This paper summarizes the main progress in urban meteorology research from four aspects:urban meteorological observation network and field campaign,multi-scale model of urban meteorology,interaction between urban meteorology and atmospheric environment,and the impacts of urbanization on weather and climate.Major advances are as follows.China’s major cities have established or are improving comprehensive urban meteorological observation networks characterized by multi-platform,multi-variable,multi-scale,multi-link,and multi-function.Beijing,Nanjing,Shanghai,and other cities carried out urban meteorological field campaigns,which were included in the WMO research demonstration project.Wind tunnel experiments and scale-model outdoor experiments were successfully conducted.Multi-scale urban meteorological and air quality prediction numerical model systems have been developed and put into operational use.The urban heat island effect;urban impacts on precipitation,regional climate,and air quality;urban planning;and interaction between urban meteorology and atmospheric environment are extensively investigated.Finally,efforts to improve observational technology,data assimilation,and urban system modeling,to explore the impacts of urbanization on environment and human health,and to provide integrated urban hydro-meteorological climate and environmental services are planned ahead.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2015DFA20870)the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (Grant Nos. D171100000717003, Z161100001116065 & Z151100002115045)
文摘With the intensification of pollution and urbanization, the aerosol radiation effect continues to play an important role in the urban boundary layer. In this paper, a winter pollution process in Beijing has been taken as an example, and a new aerosol vertical profile in the radiative parameterization scheme within the Weather Forecast Research and Forecasting(WRF) model has been updated to study the effect of aerosols on radiation and the boundary layer. Furthermore, the interactions among aerosols,urbanization, and planetary boundary layer(PBL) meteorology were discussed through a series of numerical experiments. The results show the following:(1) The optimization improves the performance of the model in simulating the distribution features of air temperature, humidity, and wind in Beijing.(2) The aerosols reduce the surface temperature by reducing solar radiation and increasing the temperature in the upper layer by absorbing or backscattering solar radiation. The changes in the PBL temperature lead to more stable atmospheric stratification, reducing the energy transfer from the surface and the height of the boundary layer.(3) With the increase in the aerosol optical depth, the atmospheric stratification most likely becomes stable over rural areas, most likely becomes stable over suburb areas, and has great difficultly becoming stable over urban areas. Aerosol radiative forcing,underlying urban surfaces, and the interaction between them are the main factors that affect the changes in the meteorological elements in the PBL.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0602004)Natural Science Foundation of Beijing(8161004 and 8172051)+1 种基金National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(2014BAC23B01)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201206015)
文摘We used simultaneous measurements of surface PM_（2.5） concentration and vertical profiles of aerosol concentration,temperature, and humidity, together with regional air quality model simulations, to study an episode of aerosol pollution in Beijing from 15 to 19 November 2016. The potential effects of easterly and southerly winds on the surface concentrations and vertical profiles of the PM_（2.5） pollution were investigated. Favorable easterly winds produced strong upward motion and were able to transport the PM_（2.5） pollution at the surface to the upper levels of the atmosphere. The amount of surface PM_（2.5） pollution transported by the easterly winds was determined by the strength and height of the upward motion produced by the easterly winds and the initial height of the upward wind. A greater amount of PM_（2.5） pollution was transported to upper levels of the atmosphere by upward winds with a lower initial height. The pollutants were diluted by easterly winds from clean ocean air masses. The inversion layer was destroyed by the easterly winds and the surface pollutants and warm air masses were then lifted to the upper levels of the atmosphere, where they re-established a multi-layer inversion. This region of inversion was strengthened by the southerly winds, increasing the severity of pollution. A vortex was produced by southerly winds that led to the convergence of air along the Taihang Mountains. Pollutants were transported from southern–central Hebei Province to Beijing in the boundary layer. Warm advection associated with the southerly winds intensified the inversion produced by the easterly winds and a more stable boundary layer was formed. The layer with high PM_（2.5） concentration became dee-per with persistent southerly winds of a certain depth. The polluted air masses then rose over the northern Taihang Mountains to the northern mountainous regions of Hebei Province.
基金Supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Pioneering Program(XDA20060401)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201506002)+1 种基金National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB953703)Intergovernment Key International S&T Innovation Cooperation Program(2016YFE0102400).
文摘Selecting proper parameterization scheme combinations for a particular application is of great interest to the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model users.This study aims to develop an objective method for identifying a set of scheme combinations to form a multi-physics ensemble suitable for short-range precipitation forecasting in the Greater Beijing area.The ensemble is created by using statistical techniques and some heuristics.An initial sample of 90 scheme combinations was first generated by using Latin hypercube sampling(LHS).Then,after several rounds of screening,a final ensemble of 40 combinations were chosen.The ensemble forecasts generated for both the training and verification cases using these combinations were evaluated based on several verification metrics,including threat score(TS),Brier score(BS),relative operating characteristics(ROC),and ranked probability score(RPS).The results show that TS of the final ensemble improved by 9%-33%over that of the initial ensemble.The reliability was improved for rain≤10 mm day^-1,but decreased slightly for rain>10 mm day^-1 due to insufficient samples.The resolution remained about the same.The final ensemble forecasts were better than that generated from randomly sampled scheme combinations.These results suggest that the proposed approach is an effective way to select a multi-physics ensemble for generating accurate and reliable forecasts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42205075)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3004105)the Youth Beijing Scholars Program(Grant No.2018-007)。
文摘This paper introduces a fast urban microscale meteorological model with a horizontal resolution of O(10)m,named URBAN(Urban Rapid&Building-Aware Neighborhood),which is capable of rapid assessment of meteorological fields over key urban areas,including wind speed,air temperature,humidity and thermal comfort index,with the execution time less than10 minutes consuming 1 CPU core.URBAN uses a fast wind diagnostic method to construct three-dimensional(3-D)wind fields surrounding complex building clusters with their geometry resolved explicitly.To enhance the accuracy of wind reconstruction and the continuity of the initial wind field around irregular buildings,we propose a new parameterization method based on stream functions,which can accurately characterize the influences of complex urban building clusters on the three-dimensional wind field.The model can provide various results for the meteorological service of large outdoor activities,including conventional meteorological elements(wind,temperature,humidity,radiation,etc.)and the Universal Thermal Comfort Index,which is derived from the relationship between physiological processes and environmental meteorological conditions.In this paper,URBAN is applied to develop an automatic analysis and forecast system of microscale meteorological elements over the central Beijing region in summer during a large outdoor event.By comparing with the half-hourly observations from three auto weather stations(AWSs)in the region,the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the modeled 10-meter-height wind speed,2-meter-height air temperature and humidity are 0.98 m s^(-1),1.37℃and 7.37%,respectively.
基金supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.8184074)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41705006&41805011)the Beijing Young Scholars Program。
文摘Vegetation constitutes one of the fundamental types of land use on Earth.The presence of trees in urban areas can decrease local winds and exchange sensible and latent heat with the surrounding environments,thus exerting notable influences on the urban microenvironment.A better understanding of the turbulent transfer of momentum and scalars around vegetation canopy could significantly contribute to improvement of the urban environment.This work develops a large-eddy simulation(LES)method that is applicable to model the flow and scalar transport over the forest canopy.We study the atmospheric flow over complex forested areas under typical weather conditions by coupling LES to the mesoscale model.Models of radiation and energy balance have been developed with explicit treatment of the vegetation canopy.By examining the flow over a forest canopy under a range of stability conditions,we found that buoyancy enhances or suppresses turbulent mixing in unstable or stable atmosphere respectively,with decreasing or increasing wind shear,respectively.From the multiscale modeling of the Beijing Olympic Forest Park,the present coupling scheme proves to better resolve the diurnal variations in wind speed,temperature,and relative humidity over complex urban terrains.The coupling scheme is superior to the traditional mesoscale model in terms of wind field simulation.This is mainly because the coupling scheme not only takes the influences of external mesoscale flow into consideration,but also resolves the heterogeneous urban surface at a fine scale by downscaling,thus better reproducing the complex flow and turbulent transport in the urban roughness sublayer.
