2023年春季,我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱,对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据,本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Center...2023年春季,我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱,对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据,本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)再分析数据、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)的海表温度等,采用T-N波作用通量和合成分析等方法,从海温和热带大气季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)的角度深入探讨此次春旱成因。结果表明:(1)2023年我国西南春旱是高温干旱复合事件,3月干旱发生在中部,4月干旱加剧并向西扩展,5月干旱持续。(2)3月北太平洋的马蹄形海温异常导致西风急流偏南偏西,抑制了西南地区的降水。(3)4月印度洋暖海温通过Kelvin波导致孟加拉湾附近的反气旋式环流异常,西北太平洋暖海温通过Rossby波导致南海至菲律宾的气旋式环流异常,造成西南地区南部出现偏北风,导致水汽辐散,加剧干旱。(4)5月MJO长时间维持在西太平洋,通过Gill响应引发南海至菲律宾对流层低层的气旋异常,减少偏南水汽的输送,从而使得西南干旱持续。展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI)is common in intensive care unit(ICU)and worsens the prognosis of critically ill patients.The four-point grading system proposed by the European Society of Intensive Care M...BACKGROUND Acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI)is common in intensive care unit(ICU)and worsens the prognosis of critically ill patients.The four-point grading system proposed by the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine is subjective and lacks specificity.Therefore,a more objective method is required to evaluate and determine the grade of gastrointestinal dysfunction in this patient population.Digital continuous monitoring of bowel sounds and some biomarkers can change in gastrointestinal injuries.We aimed to develop a model of AGI using continuous monitoring of bowel sounds and biomarkers.AIM To develop a model to discriminate AGI by monitoring bowel sounds and biomarker indicators.METHODS We conducted a prospective observational study with 75 patients in an ICU of a tertiary-care hospital to create a diagnostic model for AGI.We recorded their bowel sounds,assessed AGI grading,collected clinical data,and measured biomarkers.We evaluated the model using misjudgment probability and leave-one-out cross-validation.RESULTS Mean bowel sound rate and citrulline level are independent risk factors for AGI.Gastrin was identified as a risk factor for the severity of AGI.Other factors that correlated with AGI include mean bowel sound rate,amplitude,interval time,Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score,platelet count,total protein level,blood gas potential of hydrogen(pH),and bicarbonate(HCO3-)level.Two discriminant models were constructed with a misclassification probability of<0.1.Leave-one-out cross-validation correctly classified 69.8%of the cases.CONCLUSION Our AGI diagnostic model represents a potentially effective approach for clinical AGI grading and holds promise as an objective diagnostic standard for AGI.展开更多
文摘2023年春季,我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱,对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据,本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)再分析数据、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)的海表温度等,采用T-N波作用通量和合成分析等方法,从海温和热带大气季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)的角度深入探讨此次春旱成因。结果表明:(1)2023年我国西南春旱是高温干旱复合事件,3月干旱发生在中部,4月干旱加剧并向西扩展,5月干旱持续。(2)3月北太平洋的马蹄形海温异常导致西风急流偏南偏西,抑制了西南地区的降水。(3)4月印度洋暖海温通过Kelvin波导致孟加拉湾附近的反气旋式环流异常,西北太平洋暖海温通过Rossby波导致南海至菲律宾的气旋式环流异常,造成西南地区南部出现偏北风,导致水汽辐散,加剧干旱。(4)5月MJO长时间维持在西太平洋,通过Gill响应引发南海至菲律宾对流层低层的气旋异常,减少偏南水汽的输送,从而使得西南干旱持续。
基金Supported by The Clinical Research Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University,No.XJTU1AF2021CRF-018.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI)is common in intensive care unit(ICU)and worsens the prognosis of critically ill patients.The four-point grading system proposed by the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine is subjective and lacks specificity.Therefore,a more objective method is required to evaluate and determine the grade of gastrointestinal dysfunction in this patient population.Digital continuous monitoring of bowel sounds and some biomarkers can change in gastrointestinal injuries.We aimed to develop a model of AGI using continuous monitoring of bowel sounds and biomarkers.AIM To develop a model to discriminate AGI by monitoring bowel sounds and biomarker indicators.METHODS We conducted a prospective observational study with 75 patients in an ICU of a tertiary-care hospital to create a diagnostic model for AGI.We recorded their bowel sounds,assessed AGI grading,collected clinical data,and measured biomarkers.We evaluated the model using misjudgment probability and leave-one-out cross-validation.RESULTS Mean bowel sound rate and citrulline level are independent risk factors for AGI.Gastrin was identified as a risk factor for the severity of AGI.Other factors that correlated with AGI include mean bowel sound rate,amplitude,interval time,Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score,platelet count,total protein level,blood gas potential of hydrogen(pH),and bicarbonate(HCO3-)level.Two discriminant models were constructed with a misclassification probability of<0.1.Leave-one-out cross-validation correctly classified 69.8%of the cases.CONCLUSION Our AGI diagnostic model represents a potentially effective approach for clinical AGI grading and holds promise as an objective diagnostic standard for AGI.
