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Basic Features of Climate Change in North China during 1961-2010 被引量:1
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作者 GUO Wen-Li SHI Hong-Bo +4 位作者 ma jing-jin ZHANG Ying-Juan WANG Ji SHU Wen-Jun ZHANG Zi-Yin 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE 2013年第2期73-83,共11页
The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations' data in the study are... The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations' data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36℃ per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season (May to September). During 1961 -2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in midwestern and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s. 展开更多
关键词 North China TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION extreme climate events
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基于数理统计探究部分城市O_(3)污染的影响因素
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作者 张彤 陈荣强 +3 位作者 马景金 张佳崎 王春迎 潘本锋 《环境科技》 2024年第6期39-44,50,共7页
对全国及不同区域部分城市O_(3)污染状况及其影响因素进行重点分析。结果表明,北部城市(石家庄市、郑州市)的O_(3)与PM_(2.5)浓度在冬季均呈负相关,其他季节均呈正相关;中南部城市(荆门市、赣州市)的O_(3)与PM_(2.5)浓度全年基本均呈正... 对全国及不同区域部分城市O_(3)污染状况及其影响因素进行重点分析。结果表明,北部城市(石家庄市、郑州市)的O_(3)与PM_(2.5)浓度在冬季均呈负相关,其他季节均呈正相关;中南部城市(荆门市、赣州市)的O_(3)与PM_(2.5)浓度全年基本均呈正相关关系;在O_(3)污染显著月份,O_(3)与PM_(2.5)年际浓度基本均呈同升同降的协同变化趋势。2022年5月~9月,当日0∶00~6∶00 O_(3)与NO_(2)平均浓度呈正相关,O_(3)超标天的NO_(2)浓度明显高于达标天,石家庄市、郑州市、荆门市、赣州市O_(3)生成的NO_(2)敏感拐点质量浓度分别为32,24,17,14μg/m^(3),NO_(2)浓度若降至敏感点以下时,O_(3)污染可能会有所改善。 展开更多
关键词 不同区域城市 O_(3) PM_(2.5) NO_(2)
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全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下潮白河流域气候和径流量变化预估 被引量:9
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作者 郝莹 马京津 +2 位作者 安晶晶 王元 许红梅 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第3期237-246,共10页
潮白河流域为北京主要供水源,其水资源量对北京用水保障至关重要,因此开展该流域在全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下的径流预估研究具有现实意义。利用1961—2001年WATCH数据对SWAT水文模型进行率定和验证,在此基础上,应用第五次耦合模式比较计划... 潮白河流域为北京主要供水源,其水资源量对北京用水保障至关重要,因此开展该流域在全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下的径流预估研究具有现实意义。利用1961—2001年WATCH数据对SWAT水文模型进行率定和验证,在此基础上,应用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式在典型浓度路径(RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5)下预估的全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下的数据驱动SWAT模型,开展了潮白河流域气温、降水及径流量的变化预估研究,并量化评估由气候模式和RCPs导致的水文效应的不确定性。结果表明:(1)SWAT模型基本能较好地模拟潮白河流域的月径流特征,应用该模型进行气候变化对径流量的影响评估是可行的。(2)在全球1.5℃和2.0℃升温下,潮白河流域年平均温度较基准期(1976—2005年)分别增加1.5℃和2.2℃,年平均降水量也增加4.9%和7.0%。预估的年径流量在全球1.5℃升温下总体略有增加,盛夏和秋初的径流量占全年的比例也有所增加;在全球2.0℃升温下,年径流量增幅达30%以上,但夏季径流量占全年的比例明显减少。(3)在全球2.0℃升温下,潮白河流域极端丰水流量明显增加,洪涝发生风险增大。(4)未来气温、降水量和径流量的预估都存在一定的不确定性,在全球2.0℃升温下不确定性更大;相对而言,径流量的不确定性要远大于降水量的不确定性;无论是全球1.5℃升温下还是2.0℃升温下,预估不确定性主要来源于全球气候模式。 展开更多
关键词 潮白河流域 SWAT水文模型 全球气候模式(GCMs) 典型浓度路径(RCPs) 径流 预估
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