Value at risk(VaR)and expected shortfall(ES)have emerged as standard measures for detecting the market risk of financial assets and play essential roles in investment decisions,external regulations,and risk capital al...Value at risk(VaR)and expected shortfall(ES)have emerged as standard measures for detecting the market risk of financial assets and play essential roles in investment decisions,external regulations,and risk capital allocation.However,existing VaR estimation approaches fail to accurately reflect downside risks,and the ES estimation technique is quite limited owing to its challenging implementation.This causes financial institutions to overestimate or underestimate investment risk and finally leads to the inefficient allocation of financial resources.The main purpose of this study is to use machine learning to improve the accuracy of VaR estimation and provide an effective tool for ES estimation.Specifically,this study proposes a VaR estimator by combining quantile regression with“Mogrifier”recurrent neural networks to capture the“long memory”and“clustering”properties of financial assets;while for estimating ES,this study directly models the quantile of assets and employs generative adversarial networks to generate future tail risk scenarios.In addition to the typical properties of financial assets,the model design is also consistent with heterogeneous market theory.An empirical application to four major global stock indices shows that our model is superior to other existing models.展开更多
BACKGROUND： Scholars have supposed to establish animal models of optic neuropathy by pressing and partially amputating optic nerve, increasing intraocular pressure and injecting vasoconstrictor, etc., but the models ...BACKGROUND： Scholars have supposed to establish animal models of optic neuropathy by pressing and partially amputating optic nerve, increasing intraocular pressure and injecting vasoconstrictor, etc., but the models are greatly different from anterior ischemia optic neuropathy. Therefore, a more ideal method is needed to establish animal model of anterior ischemic optic neuropathy （AION）. OBJECTIVE ： To establish AION models in rats, observe the functional changes of fundus, fundus fluorescein angiography （FFA）, optical coherence tomography （OCT）, flash visual evoked potential （F-VEP）, and histopathologically confirm its reliability. DESIGN： A randomized control tria SETTINGS ： Department of Ophthalmology, Xi＇an Fourth Hospital; Xi＇an Institute of Ocular Fundus Diseases MATERIALS ： The experiments were carried out in the research room of Xi＇an Institute of Ocular Fundus Diseases from February 2005 to May 2006. Thirty healthy male SD rats of 4-5 weeks old, weighing 140-160 g, were provided by the animal experimental center of the Fourth Military Medical University of Chinese PLA [SCXK （Military）2002-005], and those without eye disease examined by slit lamp and direct ophthalmoscope after mydriasis were enrolled. The conditions for feeding mice without special pathogen were strictly followed. The rats were randomly divided into blank control group （n =5）, laser group （n =5）, hematoporphyrin derivative （HPD） group and AION group （n =15）, each group was numbered randomly. For each rat, the right eye was taken as the experimental eye, and the left one as the control one. METHODS： In the AION group, the rats were injected with HPD （10 mg/kg） via caudal vein, and then the optic discs were exposed to krypton red （647 nm, 80 mV） for 120 s, and the rats were in avoidance of light for 2 weeks postoperatively. Rats in the laser group were only exposed to krypton red （647 rim, 80 mV） for 120 s, and in avoidance of light for 2 weeks postoperatively; Those in the HPD group were only injected with HPD （10 mg/kg） via caudal vein; Those in the blank control group were untouched. （1） Visual electrophysiological test： The F-VEP was used to evaluate the function of visual nerve. （2） FFA： After mydriasis and anesthesia as describe above, the fluorescein sodium parenteral solution （1 mL/kg） was injected v/a caudal vein and finished within about 3 s, the time of FFA was recorded from the beginning of injection, the video sight aimed at the optic disc and the surrounding area. （3） After mydriasis and anesthesia as describe above, the rats were examined with OCT. （4） Histological observation： After hematoxylin and eosin （HE） staining, the optic disc and surrounding blood vessels of retina were observed under light microscope at high power field. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES： The results of fundus, FFA, visual electrophysiological test and OCT detection within 90 days after model establishment were observed. RESULTS： Of the 30 rats, 1 died after anesthesia in the laser group and 2 died in the AION group respectively, and finally 27 rats were involved in the analysis of results. （1） Changes in fundus： In the AION group, there was edema in upper optic disc and unclear boundary at 1 day after establishment, edema still could be observed at 6 days, and upper optic disc atrophied and appeared as pale at 90 days. （2） FFA results： In the AION group, early ＂low fluorescence＂, middle and late ＂high fluorescence＂ were observed in upper optic disc 1 day after model establishment, and there was ＂low fluorescence＂ at 6 days, and the low fluorescence could be observed all the time at 23 days. （3） Visual electrophysiological changes： In the AION group as compared with the control eyes, the experimental ones had prolonged F-VEP P100 latency [（71.65±8.81）, （57.58±8.38） ms, t =3.148, P =0.012], and decreased wave amplitude [（4.77±1.90）, （10.06±3.66） μV, t =4.082, P =0.003], and these changes lasted to 35 days after model establishment. （4） OCT results： In the AION group, the reflection surface of part nerve fiber layer was higher than the retina plane, the surface was rough and the thickness was increased at 6 days after model establishment. （5） Histopathological results： At 1 day after model establishment, part optic discs had highly edema, edema of nerve fibers, and loose tissue, also accompanied by the displacement of surrounding retina; At 23 days, the optic disc and surrounding nerve fiber layers became thinner, and the numbers of ganglion nuclei in the retina tissue sections were obviously decreased. These changes were not observed in the laser group, HPD group and blank control group. CONCLUSION ： The changes of fundus, FFA, OCT, visual electrophysiology and histopathology confirmed that the krypton red laser irradiation （647 nm） at 2 hours after HPD was injected via caudal vein can establish more ideal animal models of AION.展开更多
In the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the permafrost table has a significant effect on the stability of geotechnical engineering.The thermal boundaries and soil properties are the key factors aff...In the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the permafrost table has a significant effect on the stability of geotechnical engineering.The thermal boundaries and soil properties are the key factors affecting the permafrost table.Complex geological environments and human activities can lead to the uncertainties of thermal boundaries and soil properties.In this paper,an array of field experiments and Monte Carlo(MC)simulations of thermal boundaries and soil properties are carried out.The coefficient of variation(COV),scale of fluctuation(SOF),and autocorrelation distance(ACD)of uncertainties of thermal boundaries and soil properties are investigated.A stochastic analysis method of the probabilistic permafrost table is then proposed,and the statistical properties of permafrost table on the QTP are computed by self-compiled program.The proposed stochastic analysis method is verified with the calculated and measured temperature observations.According to the relationship between ACD and SOF for the five theoretical autocorrelation functions(ACFs),the effects of ACF,COV,and ACD of soil properties and the COV of thermal boundaries on the permafrost tables are analyzed.The results show that the effects of different ACFs of soil properties on the standard deviation(SD)of permafrost table depth are not obvious.The SD of permafrost table depth increases with time,and the larger the COVs of thermal boundaries and soil properties,the deeper the SD of permafrost table;the longer the ACD of soil properties,the shallower the SD of permafrost table.This study can provide a reference for the stability analysis of geotechnical engineering on the QTP considering the uncertainties of thermal boundaries and soil properties.展开更多
The unfrozen water content and ice content of frozen soil change continuously with varying temperatures,resulting in the temperature dependence of mechanical properties of frozen soil.Thus the dynamic behavior of emba...The unfrozen water content and ice content of frozen soil change continuously with varying temperatures,resulting in the temperature dependence of mechanical properties of frozen soil.Thus the dynamic behavior of embankment in permafrost regions under train loading also alters with seasons.Based on a series of strong-motion tests that were carried out on the traditional embankment of Qinghai-Tibet Railway(QTR)in permafrost regions,the acceleration waveforms recorded at the embankment shoulder and slope toes were obtained.Testing results show an obvious attenuation effect on the vertical train loading from road shoulder to slope toes.Furthermore,numerical simulations of a traditional embankment under vertical train loading in different seasons were conducted,and the dynamic behavior of the embankment was described.The results show that the vibration attenuation in the cold season is greater than that in the warm season.The maximum acceleration of vibration drops to about 5%when the train vibration load is transferred through the embankment into the permafrost,and the high-frequency components are absorbed when the vibration transmits downward.Moreover,the dynamic stress under the dynamic train loading decreases exponentially with an increasing depth in different seasons.The results can be a reference for design and maintenance of embankments in permafrost regions.展开更多
Heavy metal pollution of soil has become one of the most common hazards in human development.The artificial freezing method,especially the progressive freezing method,can reduce heavy metal pollutants in the soil and ...Heavy metal pollution of soil has become one of the most common hazards in human development.The artificial freezing method,especially the progressive freezing method,can reduce heavy metal pollutants in the soil and promises to be an effective in-situ treatment of contaminated sites.This study analyzes the freezing purification mechanism of heavy metal contaminants in saturated sand and identifies three main factors that impact the effects of purification:freezing rate,initial concentration,and diffusion coefficient.Moreover,one-dimensional freezing tests are carried out by different freezing modes.The experimental results show that the heavy metal chromium could only be removed effectively with a slow freezing rate.By optimizing the freezing mode and freezing rate,a long section of soil was frozen and purified,with the maximum purification rate reaching 65.8%.This study shows that it is feasible to treat contaminated saturated sand by a gradual-cooling freezing method.展开更多
Two different pulse cleaning techniques for ultra-high contrast laser systems are comparably analysed in this work.The first pulse cleaning technique is based on noncollinear femtosecond optical-parametric amplificati...Two different pulse cleaning techniques for ultra-high contrast laser systems are comparably analysed in this work.The first pulse cleaning technique is based on noncollinear femtosecond optical-parametric amplification(NOPA)and second-harmonic generation(SHG)processes.The other is based on cross-polarized wave(XPW)generation.With a double chirped pulse amplifier(double-CPA)scheme,although temporal contrast enhancement in a high-intensity femtosecond Ti:sapphire chirped pulse amplification(CPA)laser system can be achieved based on both of the techniques,the two different pulse cleaning techniques still have their own advantages and are suitable for different contrast enhancement requirements of different laser systems.展开更多
基金supported by the Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation(20212ACB211003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71671029).
文摘Value at risk(VaR)and expected shortfall(ES)have emerged as standard measures for detecting the market risk of financial assets and play essential roles in investment decisions,external regulations,and risk capital allocation.However,existing VaR estimation approaches fail to accurately reflect downside risks,and the ES estimation technique is quite limited owing to its challenging implementation.This causes financial institutions to overestimate or underestimate investment risk and finally leads to the inefficient allocation of financial resources.The main purpose of this study is to use machine learning to improve the accuracy of VaR estimation and provide an effective tool for ES estimation.Specifically,this study proposes a VaR estimator by combining quantile regression with“Mogrifier”recurrent neural networks to capture the“long memory”and“clustering”properties of financial assets;while for estimating ES,this study directly models the quantile of assets and employs generative adversarial networks to generate future tail risk scenarios.In addition to the typical properties of financial assets,the model design is also consistent with heterogeneous market theory.An empirical application to four major global stock indices shows that our model is superior to other existing models.
基金a grant from Scientific Research Fund of Shaanxi Department of Hygiene, No. 04AC1
文摘BACKGROUND： Scholars have supposed to establish animal models of optic neuropathy by pressing and partially amputating optic nerve, increasing intraocular pressure and injecting vasoconstrictor, etc., but the models are greatly different from anterior ischemia optic neuropathy. Therefore, a more ideal method is needed to establish animal model of anterior ischemic optic neuropathy （AION）. OBJECTIVE ： To establish AION models in rats, observe the functional changes of fundus, fundus fluorescein angiography （FFA）, optical coherence tomography （OCT）, flash visual evoked potential （F-VEP）, and histopathologically confirm its reliability. DESIGN： A randomized control tria SETTINGS ： Department of Ophthalmology, Xi＇an Fourth Hospital; Xi＇an Institute of Ocular Fundus Diseases MATERIALS ： The experiments were carried out in the research room of Xi＇an Institute of Ocular Fundus Diseases from February 2005 to May 2006. Thirty healthy male SD rats of 4-5 weeks old, weighing 140-160 g, were provided by the animal experimental center of the Fourth Military Medical University of Chinese PLA [SCXK （Military）2002-005], and those without eye disease examined by slit lamp and direct ophthalmoscope after mydriasis were enrolled. The conditions for feeding mice without special pathogen were strictly followed. The rats were randomly divided into blank control group （n =5）, laser group （n =5）, hematoporphyrin derivative （HPD） group and AION group （n =15）, each group was numbered randomly. For each rat, the right eye was taken as the experimental eye, and the left one as the control one. METHODS： In the AION group, the rats were injected with HPD （10 mg/kg） via caudal vein, and then the optic discs were exposed to krypton red （647 nm, 80 mV） for 120 s, and the rats were in avoidance of light for 2 weeks postoperatively. Rats in the laser group were only exposed to krypton red （647 rim, 80 mV） for 120 s, and in avoidance of light for 2 weeks postoperatively; Those in the HPD group were only injected with HPD （10 mg/kg） via caudal vein; Those in the blank control group were untouched. （1） Visual electrophysiological test： The F-VEP was used to evaluate the function of visual nerve. （2） FFA： After mydriasis and anesthesia as describe above, the fluorescein sodium parenteral solution （1 mL/kg） was injected v/a caudal vein and finished within about 3 s, the time of FFA was recorded from the beginning of injection, the video sight aimed at the optic disc and the surrounding area. （3） After mydriasis and anesthesia as describe above, the rats were examined with OCT. （4） Histological observation： After hematoxylin and eosin （HE） staining, the optic disc and surrounding blood vessels of retina were observed under light microscope at high power field. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES： The results of fundus, FFA, visual electrophysiological test and OCT detection within 90 days after model establishment were observed. RESULTS： Of the 30 rats, 1 died after anesthesia in the laser group and 2 died in the AION group respectively, and finally 27 rats were involved in the analysis of results. （1） Changes in fundus： In the AION group, there was edema in upper optic disc and unclear boundary at 1 day after establishment, edema still could be observed at 6 days, and upper optic disc atrophied and appeared as pale at 90 days. （2） FFA results： In the AION group, early ＂low fluorescence＂, middle and late ＂high fluorescence＂ were observed in upper optic disc 1 day after model establishment, and there was ＂low fluorescence＂ at 6 days, and the low fluorescence could be observed all the time at 23 days. （3） Visual electrophysiological changes： In the AION group as compared with the control eyes, the experimental ones had prolonged F-VEP P100 latency [（71.65±8.81）, （57.58±8.38） ms, t =3.148, P =0.012], and decreased wave amplitude [（4.77±1.90）, （10.06±3.66） μV, t =4.082, P =0.003], and these changes lasted to 35 days after model establishment. （4） OCT results： In the AION group, the reflection surface of part nerve fiber layer was higher than the retina plane, the surface was rough and the thickness was increased at 6 days after model establishment. （5） Histopathological results： At 1 day after model establishment, part optic discs had highly edema, edema of nerve fibers, and loose tissue, also accompanied by the displacement of surrounding retina; At 23 days, the optic disc and surrounding nerve fiber layers became thinner, and the numbers of ganglion nuclei in the retina tissue sections were obviously decreased. These changes were not observed in the laser group, HPD group and blank control group. CONCLUSION ： The changes of fundus, FFA, OCT, visual electrophysiology and histopathology confirmed that the krypton red laser irradiation （647 nm） at 2 hours after HPD was injected via caudal vein can establish more ideal animal models of AION.
基金This research was supported by Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering(Grant No.SKLFSE202017)Key Research and Development Program of Xuzhou(Grant No.KC20179)Major State Basic Research Development Program(Grant No.2012CB026103).
文摘In the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),the permafrost table has a significant effect on the stability of geotechnical engineering.The thermal boundaries and soil properties are the key factors affecting the permafrost table.Complex geological environments and human activities can lead to the uncertainties of thermal boundaries and soil properties.In this paper,an array of field experiments and Monte Carlo(MC)simulations of thermal boundaries and soil properties are carried out.The coefficient of variation(COV),scale of fluctuation(SOF),and autocorrelation distance(ACD)of uncertainties of thermal boundaries and soil properties are investigated.A stochastic analysis method of the probabilistic permafrost table is then proposed,and the statistical properties of permafrost table on the QTP are computed by self-compiled program.The proposed stochastic analysis method is verified with the calculated and measured temperature observations.According to the relationship between ACD and SOF for the five theoretical autocorrelation functions(ACFs),the effects of ACF,COV,and ACD of soil properties and the COV of thermal boundaries on the permafrost tables are analyzed.The results show that the effects of different ACFs of soil properties on the standard deviation(SD)of permafrost table depth are not obvious.The SD of permafrost table depth increases with time,and the larger the COVs of thermal boundaries and soil properties,the deeper the SD of permafrost table;the longer the ACD of soil properties,the shallower the SD of permafrost table.This study can provide a reference for the stability analysis of geotechnical engineering on the QTP considering the uncertainties of thermal boundaries and soil properties.
基金This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41701058)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0905)+1 种基金the Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering(Grant No.SKLFSE201606)and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2015M570490).
文摘The unfrozen water content and ice content of frozen soil change continuously with varying temperatures,resulting in the temperature dependence of mechanical properties of frozen soil.Thus the dynamic behavior of embankment in permafrost regions under train loading also alters with seasons.Based on a series of strong-motion tests that were carried out on the traditional embankment of Qinghai-Tibet Railway(QTR)in permafrost regions,the acceleration waveforms recorded at the embankment shoulder and slope toes were obtained.Testing results show an obvious attenuation effect on the vertical train loading from road shoulder to slope toes.Furthermore,numerical simulations of a traditional embankment under vertical train loading in different seasons were conducted,and the dynamic behavior of the embankment was described.The results show that the vibration attenuation in the cold season is greater than that in the warm season.The maximum acceleration of vibration drops to about 5%when the train vibration load is transferred through the embankment into the permafrost,and the high-frequency components are absorbed when the vibration transmits downward.Moreover,the dynamic stress under the dynamic train loading decreases exponentially with an increasing depth in different seasons.The results can be a reference for design and maintenance of embankments in permafrost regions.
基金supported by Major State Basic Research Development Program(Grant No.2012CB026103)111 Project of China(Grant No.B14021)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51104146,Grant No.41271096)Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering(Grant No.SKLFSE201704)。
文摘Heavy metal pollution of soil has become one of the most common hazards in human development.The artificial freezing method,especially the progressive freezing method,can reduce heavy metal pollutants in the soil and promises to be an effective in-situ treatment of contaminated sites.This study analyzes the freezing purification mechanism of heavy metal contaminants in saturated sand and identifies three main factors that impact the effects of purification:freezing rate,initial concentration,and diffusion coefficient.Moreover,one-dimensional freezing tests are carried out by different freezing modes.The experimental results show that the heavy metal chromium could only be removed effectively with a slow freezing rate.By optimizing the freezing mode and freezing rate,a long section of soil was frozen and purified,with the maximum purification rate reaching 65.8%.This study shows that it is feasible to treat contaminated saturated sand by a gradual-cooling freezing method.
文摘Two different pulse cleaning techniques for ultra-high contrast laser systems are comparably analysed in this work.The first pulse cleaning technique is based on noncollinear femtosecond optical-parametric amplification(NOPA)and second-harmonic generation(SHG)processes.The other is based on cross-polarized wave(XPW)generation.With a double chirped pulse amplifier(double-CPA)scheme,although temporal contrast enhancement in a high-intensity femtosecond Ti:sapphire chirped pulse amplification(CPA)laser system can be achieved based on both of the techniques,the two different pulse cleaning techniques still have their own advantages and are suitable for different contrast enhancement requirements of different laser systems.
