This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil productio...This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.展开更多
Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and ...Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China＇s own development.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71503264,71373285,71303258)Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(Grant Nos.15YJC630121,13YJC630148)+1 种基金Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(No.2462014YJRC024)the Major Program of the National Social Science Found of China(Grant No.13&ZD159)
文摘This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71303258, 71373285, and 71503264)National Social Science Funds of China (13&ZD159)+1 种基金MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (13YJC630148, 15YJC630121)Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum, Beijing (ZX20150130)
文摘Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China＇s own development.
