Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variabilit...Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variability and trends in Quelimane, and their relation to El Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis includes annual, inter-annual inter-decadal variations, Mann-Kendall trend test, and drought frequency. The study also evaluated the relationship between Oceanic Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>o Index (ONI) and precipitation patterns during ENSO positive, normal and negative phases. The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November. ENSO was found to influence the inter-annual variations of precipitation during the wet season, with warm ENSO (El Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>o) and cold (La Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>a) events tending to reduce and increase the precipitation amounts, respectively. Decreasing trends in inter-annual variations of precipitation and increase of drought frequency and severity are highlighted in this study. Both decreasing trend of inter-annual variations and increasing of drought frequency and severity have intensified after the 1970s climate shift. These intensifications seem to be associated with the strengthening of ENSO after the 1970s climate shift. The results of the present study may be useful for the design of the climate change adaptation plans in central Mozambique.展开更多
文摘Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variability and trends in Quelimane, and their relation to El Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis includes annual, inter-annual inter-decadal variations, Mann-Kendall trend test, and drought frequency. The study also evaluated the relationship between Oceanic Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>o Index (ONI) and precipitation patterns during ENSO positive, normal and negative phases. The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November. ENSO was found to influence the inter-annual variations of precipitation during the wet season, with warm ENSO (El Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>o) and cold (La Ni<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="color:#4F4F4F;font-family:"font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#F7F7F7;">ñ</span></span>a) events tending to reduce and increase the precipitation amounts, respectively. Decreasing trends in inter-annual variations of precipitation and increase of drought frequency and severity are highlighted in this study. Both decreasing trend of inter-annual variations and increasing of drought frequency and severity have intensified after the 1970s climate shift. These intensifications seem to be associated with the strengthening of ENSO after the 1970s climate shift. The results of the present study may be useful for the design of the climate change adaptation plans in central Mozambique.
