摘要
20世纪以来,热带气旋活动在全球气候变暖背景下发生了明显变化,登陆中国热带气旋的特征和趋势如何变化仍需进一步明确。基于中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集资料,分析了1949—2022年登陆中国热带气旋的时空特征及变化趋势,并探讨了厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对登陆热带气旋活动的影响。结果表明:(1)年均登陆中国的热带气旋约8.85个,总体呈显著减少趋势且随纬度降低降幅增大,但登陆热带气旋占生成总数的比例以及台风及以上等级热带气旋登陆占比均有增加;7—9月登陆中国热带气旋的数量占全年的76.3%,其中8月份最多。(2)空间特征上,热带气旋登陆中国的位置主要集中在18°N~26°N,约占总数88.2%,30°N以北区域登陆的热带气旋频数锐减;登陆热带气旋的生成位置重心向西北方向移动趋势显著,愈加靠近中国,2010—2022年热带气旋生成位置的重心相比1949—1969年西移4.5个经度、北移2.0个纬度。(3) ENSO与生成和登陆中国热带气旋频数的年际变化存在相关性,厄尔尼诺年促进了强热带气旋的形成,并且使得登陆热带气旋的生成位置更加偏向东南,拉尼娜年则相反;PDO也在一定程度上影响了热带气旋的生成,当处于PDO的暖位相时,生成热带气旋的数量较冷位相偏少且位置偏西。本文进一步厘清了1949年以来登陆中国热带气旋特征的变化趋势,并揭示了ENSO和PDO对热带气旋活动的影响,研究结果可为开展热带气旋模拟评估和防风减灾工作提供科学依据。
Tropical cyclone activity has undergone significant changes under the impact of the global warming since the 20th century.However,the characteristic and trend changes of landing tropical cyclones over China still need to be further clarified.We conducted an analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of landing tropical cyclones over China from 1949 to 2022 using the dataset of the best tracks of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration.Additionally,we explored the influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)on landing tropical cyclone activities.The results indicate that:(1)The annual average number of landing tropical cyclones over China is approximately 8.85,showing a significant decreasing trend,and the decreasing range becomes larger with lower latitude overall.However,both the proportion of landing tropical cyclones to the total number and the percentage of higher intensity tropical cyclones increase.The landing tropical cyclones from July to September account for 76.3%of the total,in which August experiences the most.(2)The landing positions of tropical cyclones in China are mainly concentrated between 18°N and 26°N,accounting for approximately 88.2%of the total,and the landing frequency shows a sharp decline in the regions north of 30°N.The central landing position of tropical cyclones has shifted significantly northwestward,moving closer to China.Compared to 1949-1969,the central generating position from 2010 to 2022 shifted 4.5 degrees westward and 2.0 degrees northward.(3)There is a correlation between ENSO and the frequency variation of generating tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and landing over China.El Niño promotes the formation of strong tropical cyclones and leads to a more southeastern bias in the generating positions of landing tropical cyclones,while La Niña has an opposite effect.The PDO also affects the tropical cyclones to a certain extent.During the warm phase of PDO,the generating position of tropical cyclones is westward and the number is less than that in the cold phase.This study further clarifies the changing trends and characteristics of the landing tropical cyclones over China since 1949.It also highlights the impacts of ENSO and PDO on tropical cyclone activities.The findings can serve as a scientific basis for conducting simulations and assessments of tropical cyclones and for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.
作者
贺山峰
李铮
冯爱青
王伟
马运佳
吴绍洪
HE Shanfeng;LI Zheng;FENG Aiqing;WANG Wei;MA Yunjia;WU Shaohong(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276800,Shandong,China;School of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《地理学报》
2025年第1期101-119,共19页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
山东省泰山学者青年专家计划(tsqn202103065)
国家自然科学基金项目(42371084)。
关键词
登陆热带气旋
时空特征
影响因素
中国
西北太平洋
landing tropical cyclone
spatiotemporal characteristics
influencing factor
China
Northwest Pacific
